96th issue of TEPAV Retail Confidence Index has been published.

Although retail confidence increased in December compared to last year and last month, it closed 2017 at a negative level. With regards, the business activities in the past 3 months and the expectation of orders, sales and employment in the next 3 months increased compared to November 2017. As the average TEPEs’ was -17.1 points in 2017, this level remained below the 2009 average (-13 points), which was a reflection of the global crisis. The first quarter of 2017 was the period, which comprised the lowest levels in retail confidence index during the year. TEPE, on a quarterly basis, in the first quarter of 2017, scored the lowest value since the second quarter of 2009.

Retail confidence remained negative in the last month of the year

When looking at seasonally adjusted series of TEPE values in 2016 and 2017, October and December 2017 values were lower than that of 2016. TEPE had an average of -10.3 points in 2016, and -17.1 points in 2017. Retail confidence performed worse in 2017 than in 2016.

TEPE, with -13.3 points in December 2017, showed an increase of 3.6 point when compared to the previous month and 3.5 points when compared to the same month of last year. The yearly and monthly increase in TEPE is attributed to the increase in the level of business activity in the last 3 months and sales expectations for the coming 3 months. Thus, TEPE completed the year 2017 with a negative value for all months.

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