The Balkans remain neither in a general security crisis nor in a state of durable peace. Political polarisation, institutional fragility, unresolved disputes and economic insecurity continue to expose the region to renewed tensions. Preventing conflict requires more than security arrangements; sustainable peace depends on functioning institutions, economic opportunity, constructive regional relations and a credible European integration process.
Türkiye has a distinctive role in this endeavour. Its geographical position, NATO membership, diplomatic relationships and economic presence give it substantial regional reach. Centuries of historical interaction, cultural exchange and migration have also established enduring connections between Turkish society and the peoples of southeastern Europe. Stability in the Balkans is therefore both a strategic and a societal interest for Ankara.
Political Transitions and the Unfinished Peace: Developments in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina illustrate the region’s continuing vulnerabilities. Political developments as a result of recent election in Belgrade might create opportunities for change, but their longer-term significance depends on accountable government, functioning institutions and the leadership’s approach to regional relations. Given Serbia’s regional influence and unresolved disputes with neighbouring countries, its political trajectory will also affect regional cooperation.
Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a different challenge. The Dayton Peace Agreement has preserved peace since the war, yet institutional complexity and persistent political divisions continue to constrain governance. Challenges to state-level authority underscore the need for consistent support for the country’s constitutional order, the rule of law and binding judicial decisions.
These cases demonstrate that regional security cannot depend on military deterrence alone. International security missions remain important, but lasting stability requires effective institutions, democratic accountability and peaceful dispute resolution. The European Union’s enlargement policy is central to this process: reforms must be substantive, while the prospect of membership must remain credible.
Ankara cannot resolve these disputes independently or replace the EU’s role in institutional reform. It can, however, complement international efforts through security cooperation, diplomacy and relationships extending across the region’s political and societal divides.
Türkiye’s Distinctive Regional Role: Ankara’s engagement combines strategic interests, historical connections and contemporary economic relationships. The Balkan diaspora in Türkiye with roots across the Balkans, alongside family ties, educational exchanges and commercial networks, provide channels for communication beyond formal diplomacy.
These connections are most valuable when they promote inclusion rather than favour particular ethnic, religious or political communities. Türkiye’s approach supports sovereignty and territorial integrity, equality among citizens, minority rights and peaceful coexistence. Historical ties can facilitate dialogue and mutual understanding when used impartially and in ways that respect local priorities.
Security cooperation is another important dimension. Türkiye’s participation in NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) and the EU-led EUFOR Althea mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina contributes to international efforts to maintain a safe environment and deter escalation. These missions cannot settle political disputes, but they help preserve the conditions necessary for dialogue.
Türkiye’s diplomatic relationships can similarly reduce misunderstandings and support practical agreements. Their effectiveness should be assessed through tangible results, including sustained dialogue, stronger regional coordination and progress towards peaceful solutions. Coordination with the EU, NATO, the United States and other partners can reinforce these efforts, even where priorities differ.
Economic Connectivity and Shared Prosperity: Economic insecurity can encourage emigration, weaken productive capacity and undermine confidence in political institutions. Trade, investment and regional connectivity are therefore important components of a sustainable peace agenda.
Türkiye’s trade with the Balkans amounted to approximately US$35 billion in 2024. Estimates of Turkish investment vary according to geographical coverage and methodology: approximately US$4.4 billion in direct investment stock across six Western Balkan economies, US$9.1 billion when EU-member countries in the Balkans are included, and broader regional estimates approaching US$20 billion. These figures should be interpreted in light of differences in geographical scope and measurement.
Beyond these figures, Turkish commercial engagement can support employment, local businesses, manufacturing, skills development and regional supply chains. Its contribution depends on responsible investment, transparent regulation, effective local partnerships and stronger productive capacity in host economies.
Transport infrastructure, energy security and trade facilitation offer promising areas for cooperation. Better regional connections can reduce commercial costs, facilitate investment and improve access to European markets. Cooperation in education, workforce development and disaster preparedness can further strengthen regional relationships.
Economic engagement cannot substitute for political reform. Its value lies in complementing institutional development and creating practical incentives for cross-border cooperation.
The Balkans and the Black Sea: An Interconnected Strategic Environment: Türkiye’s role in the Balkans should also be understood within the wider context of its regional security policy, particularly developments in the Black Sea. Although the two regions have distinct political dynamics, they are connected through maritime security, energy infrastructure, transport corridors and access to European markets.
As discussed in my recent TEPAV policy note, A New Era in the Black Sea: A Struggle for Power and Security Beyond the War (7 October 2026), the Russia–Ukraine war has underscored the importance of maritime security, critical infrastructure and the regional strategic order.¹ Türkiye’s approach combines NATO commitments, diplomatic engagement and the implementation of the Montreux Convention, while protecting its security and economic interests.
These developments also affect the Balkans through trade routes, energy security and unimpeded supply chains. Cooperation among Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria and other partners can strengthen maritime security and economic resilience. However, Black Sea cooperation cannot replace the political reforms, institutional development and regional reconciliation needed in southeastern Europe.
Türkiye can link these interconnected challenges through practical cooperation in security, transport, energy and trade, working with the EU, NATO and regional governments to advance stability and shared prosperity.
Priorities for a More Resilient Balkans: Türkiye and its international partners should consistently support state sovereignty, constitutional order and the peaceful resolution of disputes. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, this requires support for the Dayton framework and constitutional institutions. Political transitions elsewhere should be opportunities to strengthen accountability and public trust.
The EU should combine requests for reform with a tangible prospect of enlargement. Progress towards membership must reflect improvements in democratic governance, the rule of law and institutional effectiveness. Türkiye can complement this process through diplomacy, economic cooperation and regional connectivity without challenging the EU’s accession responsibilities.
From Crisis Management to Lasting Progress: Türkiye’s strategic position, security commitments, diplomatic relationships and economic ties give it meaningful capacity to contribute to peace and prosperity in the Balkans. Its historical and societal connections add a distinctive dimension, creating enduring interests and opportunities for dialogue.
These advantages do not automatically translate into results. Historical ties must encourage inclusion rather than partiality; security participation must preserve space for political solutions; economic engagement must generate sustainable benefits; and diplomacy must be judged by the progress it enables.
Ankara’s long-term interests are best served by a Balkans in which institutions function effectively, political disputes are managed peacefully, economic opportunities are broadly shared and regional countries can pursue their aspirations without recurring crises.
By combining security cooperation, inclusive diplomacy and economic connectivity, Türkiye can advance these objectives in partnership with European and transatlantic allies and, above all, with the countries and societies of the Balkans themselves.
1. A New Era in the Black Sea: A Struggle for Power and Security Beyond the War, TEPAV Policy Note, 7 October 2026.
2. The Balkans Back in the Spotlight: Fragility, Competition, and Türkiye’s Role, TEPAV, 7 January 2026.
