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TEPE which started the year with a downwards trend went down following the surge in March.
ANKARA - In April 2014, TEPE declined month-on-month and year-on-year. Expectations for orders, sales, and sales prices in the next three months improved year-on-year whereas sales expectations have been stagnant over the last 6 months. The volume of business activities compared to previous year and past 3 months increased month-on-month. The perception for recovery hence moved up for the first time after 4 months. Retail confidence in the EU-28 increased both year-on-year and month-on-month. Turkey had the highest year-on-year decline in business confidence compared to the EU-28.
TEPE which started the year with a downwards trend went down following the surge in March. TEPE had a value of -4.8 in April 2014, demonstrating a month-on-month decline by 2 points and a year-on-year decline by 7.2 points. The year-on-year decline was driven by the weakening of business activities compared to past 3 months and the rise in the current level of inventories.
In April 2014, 55.7 percent of TEPE survey participants declared that they expected an improvement in their business activities in the next 3 months while 15.7 percent expected deterioration. 28.5 percent of the participants don’t expect their business activities to change. The balance value of the expectations for the next three months was 21.1 points in April 2014. Expectations therefore decreased by 2.5 points year-on-year and increased by 1.2 points month-on-month. Sales expectations have been stagnant since November 2013.
In April 2014, 10.7 percent of TEPE survey participants declared an improvement in their business activities compared to the year before while 52.9 percent declared deterioration. 36.5 percent of the participants declared that business activities did not change compared to March 2013. The balance value of the volume of business activities in April 2014 compared to the same period in the previous year was minus 37.5 points. The level of business activities compared to the previous year therefore increased by 6.1 points compared to March 2014 and decreased by 15 points compared to April 2013. Anticipated business recovery increased for the first time since November 2013.
Concerning sub-sectors, motor vehicles was the best performer in April compared to same period in 2013; all other sectors declined year-on-year. The decline was less than the average in “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc) and food, beverages, and tobacco products sectors and more than the average in textile, ready-made clothing, and footwear, non-specialized stores, furniture, lighting equipment, and household articles, and electrical appliances, radio, and televisions sectors. The sharpest year-on-year decline was in the electrical appliances, radio, and televisions sector.
Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results indicate that compared to March 2014, expectations for sales and sales prices in the next 3 months declined while all other indicators increased. Compared to April 2013, the level of business activities compared to past 3 months and last year and expectations for employment in the next 3 months declined; expectations for orders placed with suppliers, current level of inventories, and the number of stores increased.
The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index that led an upwards trend in 2014 but declined in March moved up again in April. The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index had a value of 3, with a month-on-month increase by 2.4 points and a year-on-year increase by 10.6 points. Turkey performed worse than the EU-28 and the Eurozone on both timeframes and compared to the previous year, Turkey had the sharpest fall in retail confidence among the EU-28.
Southern Cyprus had the highest year-on-year increase in retail confidence compared to EU-28 countries and Turkey. It was followed by Sweden, Belgium, the UK, and Italy. Retail confidence declined year-on-year only in Slovakia, Denmark, and Turkey. South Cyprus also had the highest month-on-month increase. The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index was stronger than the Eurozone compared to both the year before and the month before.
Expectations down in Konya’s retail sector
In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.
In March, KOPE had a value of -3.1 compared to TEPE at 2.4. Konya’s retail sector which remains in the negatives since November remained in the negative zone in April although it improved slightly month-on-month. KOPE declined year-on-year by 9 points compared to TEPE by 6.8 points. Konya’s retail sector performed worse than overall Turkey and the EU-28. Expectations for sales, orders, employment, and the number of stores declined year-on-year.
