Expectations therefore increased by 8.9 points year-on-year and by 3.3 points month-on-month.

In January 2014, TEPE declined both month-on-month and year-on year and started the year in the negatives. The level of business activities decreased sharply compared to the past three months and last year. Retailers are hopeful about the future of their business, however. Expectations for orders, sales, and employment in the next three months were up. That for sales prices in the next three months also demonstrated a sharp increase. Retail confidence in the EU surged month-on-month and year-on-year and welcomed the year in the positive zone.

In the first month of 2014, TEPE declined both year-on-year and month-on-month. With a value of -3.3, TEPE decreased by 3.2 points month-on-month and by 1.6 points year-on-year. The fall was driven by the decline in business activities compared to the past three months.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months was 20.6 points in January 2014. Expectations therefore increased by 8.9 points year-on-year and by 3.3 points month-on-month. In January 2014, 38.1 percent of TEPE survey participants declared that they expected an improvement in their business activities in the next 3 months while 26.5 percent expected deterioration. 35.4 percent of the participants don’t expect their business activities to change.

The balance value of the volume of business activities in January 2014 compared to the same period in the previous year was minus 33.2 points. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore decreased by 11.7 points compared to December 2013 and by 14.1 points compared to January 2013. In January 2014, 17.3 percent of TEPE survey participants declared an improvement in their business activities compared to the year before while 58.8 percent declared deterioration. 23.9 percent of the participants declared that business activities did not change compared to January 2013.

Compared to January 2013, the best performer was food, beverages, and tobacco products sector. This was followed by furniture, lighting equipment, and household articles sector. All other sectors demonstrated a year-on-year decline. The decline was below the average for the electrical appliances, radio, and televisions; non-specialized stores; and “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc) sector, and was above the average in the textiles, ready-made clothing, and footwear sectors. The sharpest decline was in the motor vehicles sector.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results indicate that the level of business activities compared to the past three months and last year declined both year-on-year and month-on-month. Expectations for sales prices in the next three months surged remarkably. In addition, expectations for sales and employment in the next three months and for the number of stores in the next 12 months improved year-on-year and month-on-month.

The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index had a value o 2 in January 2014, increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year by 3.5 points and 11.1 points, respectively. The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index has increased for two months consecutively after the decline in November. Turkey performed worse than the EU-28 and the Eurozone in both month-on-month and year-on-year analyses.

Spain had the largest year-on-year improvement in retail confidence across the EU-28 countries and Turkey. Spain was followed by Portugal, Hungary, Italy, and Greece. Finland experienced the sharpest year-on-year decline in retail confidence. The largest month-on-month increase was observed in Slovenia. The Eurozone Retail Confidence Index was stronger than the EU-28 Index.

Konya’s retail sector also down in 2014

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In January, KOPE had a value of -4.2 compared to TEPE at – 10.2. KOPE which has been decreasing since September maintained the downwards trend in January. The Index declined year-on-year by 0.6 points while TEPE declined by 1.9 points. Konya’s retail sector performed better than overall Turkey and slightly worse than the EU-28.

Expectations for sales and orders declined while that for sales prices improved considerably. The level of business activities compared to the past weakened.