In October 2013, TEPE had a value of minus 2.4 with a month-on-month increase

In October 2013, TEPE increased month-on-month and remained constant year-on-year. Anticipation for business recovery compared o the last 3 month and last year strengthened. Expectations for the orders placed with suppliers and for sales in the next three months decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month whereas expectations for employment in the next three months increased on both accounts. The EU retail confidence which increased consecutively for give months until September headed down in October.

Having demonstrated a decline in August and September, TEPE increased in October, with a value of minus 2.4. The index therefore increased by 2.8 points month-on-month but decreased 0.1 points year-on-year. The upwards trend was driven by the improvement in the level of business activities compared to the previous 3 months.

Seasonally adjusted TEPE figures were minus 2.4 in the first quarter, minus 0.3 in the second quarter, and minus 1.9 in the third quarter of 2013. With a value of minus 2.4 in the first month of the last quarter, TEPE stood close to the value in October 2012, at 2.5 percent. TEPE values in September and October were lower in 2013 than in 2012.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months was 12.4 points in October 2013. Expectations therefore decreased by 5.5 points year-on-year and increased by 3.1 points month-on-month. 30.7 percent of TEPE survey participants declared that they expected an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 30.6 percent expected deterioration.

With seasonally adjusted series, expectations for the next three months were weaker in September and October 2013 compared to 2012.

The balance value of the volume of business activities in October 2013 compared to the same period in the previous year was minus 23.2. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore increased by 2.7 points compared to September 2013 and by 3.2 points compared to October 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of minus 1.2 in October 2013, demonstrating a 0.9-point decrease month-on-month but a 11.5-point increase year-on-year. The index decreased for the first time after the consecutive increase of five months. Turkey performed worse than both the EU-27 and the Eurozone when compared to last year.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for the EU-27 countries and Turkey, the highest year-on-year increase in retail confidence was observed in Greece. It was followed by the United Kingdom, Portugal, Slovenia, Hungary, and Spain. The sharpest year-on-year decline was in Slovakia and the highest month-on-month increase in Slovenia and Finland. The EU-27 Retail Confidence index was stronger than the Eurozone compared to 2012.

Compared to October 2012, furniture, lighting equipment, and household articles sector was the best performer. It was followed by textile, ready-made clothing and footwear, the “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc), and food, beverages and tobacco products sectors. All sectors other than these four declined year-on-year.  The decline was sharper than the average in the electrical appliances, radio, and televisions and motor vehicles sectors whereas the sharpest drop was in the non-specialized stores sectors.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results suggests that compared to September 2013, all conditions and expectations improved except for the expectation for sales prices in the next 3 months. Compared to October 2012, all but expectations for employment in the next 3 months and the level of business activities compared to the last 3 months and last year declined.

Anticipation for business recovery improves in Konya’s retail sector

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In October 2013, KOPE had a value of 3.2, compared to TEPE at minus 1.5. Having moved up in August but decreased in September, KOPE was in decline also in October. KOPE increased by 7.3 points year-on-year whereas TEPE decreased by 0.1 points. In October 2013, KOPE had a higher value than TEPE as well as the EU-27 Retail Index.

Expectations for orders placed with suppliers, sales and employment in the next 3 months decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. The level of business activities compared to last 3 months and last year increased compared to both September 2013 and October 2012.