TEPE, which was in rise in the last two months, had a value of minus 2.2 in May 2013.

In May 2013, the TEPAV Retail Confidence Indicator TEPE increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month. Expectations for the level of sales and employment in the next three years, too increased compared to last year and decreased compared to April 2013. The anticipation for the recovery in the volume of business activities is up both year-on-year and month-on-month alike the retail confidence in the EU and the Eurozone.

TEPE, which was in rise in the last two months, had a value of minus 2.2 in May 2013. This indicates a decline by 4.9 points month-on-month and a rise by 0.5 points year-on-year. In the last two years month-on-month increases were observed in the Index in Mays.

44.8 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 28.3 percent expect deterioration. The balance value of the expectations for the next three months was 18.3 in May 2013. This implies an increase by 10.9 points compared to May 2012 and a decrease by 2 points compared to April 2013. This is opposite to the rise in sales expectations from April to May in the previous two years.

In May 2013, 19.3 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 45.3 percent declared deterioration. The balance value of the volume of business activities compared to the same period in the previous year was -22.2. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore increased by 0.6 points compared to April 2013 and by 4.3 points compared to May 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of minus 12 in May 2013, with an increase by 1.7 points month-on-month and by 2.5 points a year-on-year. The EU-27 performed better than the Eurozone compared to both May 2012 and April 2013 while Turkey performed worse than both the EU-27 and the Eurozone.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for EU-27 countries and Turkey, the highest year-on-year rise was observed in Greece. The country was followed by Lithuania, Portugal and the UK while the sharpest drops were in Finland, Southern Cyprus, and Estonia. Greece and Romania recorded the highest month-on-month improvements.

Compared to May 2012, food, beverages and tobacco products sector demonstrated the strongest improvement. The sector was followed by the motor vehicles and the “others (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc)” sectors. All sectors but the three were in decline. The year-on-year declines were sharper than the average concerning furniture, lighting equipment and household articles; textiles, ready-made clothing, and footwear; and non-specialized stores sectors. The sharpest drop was observed in the electrical appliances, radio and televisions sector.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results suggests that, the level of business activities compared to the last three months and expectations for the level of sales and employment in the next three months decreased compared to April 2013. Expectations for orders placed with suppliers in the next three months, the current level of inventories and the number of stores in the next three months increased. Compared to May 2012, all conditions and expectations improved except for the expected level of sales prices in the next three months. The largest improvements were in the expectations for orders placed with suppliers, sales and employment in the next three months; the current level of inventories, and the level of business activities compared to the last year.

Konya’s retail sector in decline for the first time this year

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In May 2013, KOPE had a value of 1.3, compared to TEPE at minus 1.3. Despite the upwards trend throughout the year, Konya’s retail sector decreased in May. Yet, it performed better than overall Turkey and the EU-27. KOPE showed a year-on-year decrease by 1.3 points, while TEPE increased by 0.5 points over the same period.

Expectations for orders placed with suppliers, sales and employment in the next three months weakened both month-on-month and year-on-year. 47.8 percent of retailers in Konya declared that the volume of business activities worsened compared to May 2012.