In November TEPE had a value of -3.5 while the EU retail confidence index stood at -9.2

ANKARA - In November 2012, TEPE decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month. Business volume compared to the same period last year declined year-on-year and month-on-month while business volume compared to the previous three months recovered on both terms. Expectations on sales, orders placed with suppliers, employment and sales prices diminished compared to both October 2012 and November 2011. Retail sector confidence in the EU recovered by 3.6 points month-on-month and by 4.2 points year-on-year.

Despite the limited rise in October, the negative trend in the TEPE continued in November, with a value of -3.5. TEPE therefore decreased month-on-month and year-on-year by 0.6 point and 1 point respectively.

An assessment of seasonally adjusted TEPE values in 2012 in comparison with 2011 indicates that retail confidence was lower throughout in 2012 than it was in 2011. The performance of retailers in 2012 has been weaker in 2012 compared to 2011. The assessment of quarterly figures reveal that retail confidence in the third quarter of 2012 was weaker than it was in the first quarter.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 9.7 in November. 30.7 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 37.1 percent expect deterioration. This implies a 3-point decrease compared to November 2011 and a 4.6-point decrease compared to October 2012.

In November 2012, 22 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 48.2 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities, therefore declined by 2.3 points compared to October 2012 and by 6.6 points compared to November 2011.

EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of -9.2 in November 2012, with a month-on-month increase by 3.6 points and a year-on-year increase by 4.2 points. The Index that recorded the lowest value in the last 39 months in September maintained in November the upwards movement in October. EU-27 had a stronger retail confidence performance than Turkey and Eurozone compared to both November 2011 and October 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index, which showed year-on-year drops throughout 2012 until October, rose above the 2011 value in November.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for EU-27 countries and Turkey, highest year-on-year rises were observed in the UK, Sweden, and Belgium while the sharpest drops were observed in Slovenia, Lithuania, Italy, and Germany. Hungary, Austria, UK and Greece enjoyed the sharpest month-on-month increases in retail confidence across the EU.

Non-specialized stores sector was the strongest of November. Textile, ready-made clothing and footwear sector recovered compared to the same period last year while all sectors but two declined year-on-year. The “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.); food, beverages and tobacco products; motor vehicles; and electrical appliances, radio and televisions sectors declined at a rate above the average while the sharpest drop in performance was seen in the furniture, lighting equipment and household articles sector.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results indicates that expectations for sales, orders placed with suppliers, employment and sales prices for the next three months decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month. The level of business activities compared to the past three months increased compared to October 2012 and November 2011 whereas the level of business activities compared to the same period last year worsened.

Konya’s retail sector still in decline

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In November, KOPE had a value of -6.6 compared to TEPE at -7.3. Konya’s retail sector that has been performing worse than overall Turkey over the last two years outperformed Turkey in November. KOPE and TEPE decreased month-on-month by 2.4 points and 5.9 points, respectively.

Expectations for sales and orders placed with suppliers in the next three months increased month-on-month while expectations for employment declined. The level of business activities improved compared to the same period in the year before but declined compared to the past three months.