TEPAV policy note maintained that the regulation attempted by the YSK on February 26, 2011 to improve "fairness" is appropriate but insufficient.

ANKARA- TEPAV stated that the regulation introduced by the Higher Election Council (YSK) upon the calls of Constitutional to recalculate the number of MPs for each region was appropriate but insufficient to improve fairness. The note maintained that a new regulation can be attempted to ensure "fair representation" and equality in the value of votes (voting equality).

The policy note "The Impacts of the "YSK" Regulations on "Fairness" and "Composition of the Parliament" prepared for TEPAV by Türkmen Göksel (PhD) and Yetkin Çınar (PhD) of Ankara University Faculty of Political Sciences was published. The note stressed that there exists a significant disparity among regions with respect to the "value of one vote" and said: "For instance, it is such that, the value of one vote in Tunceli is 3.5 times higher than that in Izmir election zone 1 or in Balıkesir."

Emphasizing in this context that new regulations on the number of MPs per election region have been introduced since 2007, the note stated: "On February 26, 2011, upon the cancellation of the articles that foresees two MPs for each province by the Constitutional Court on grounds that the mentioned article "fails to promote/disturbs equality", the Higher Election Council (YSK) recalculated the number of MPs for each region, applicable for the next elections. With the new calculation, number of MPs changed for some cities."

To see the repercussions of this regulation on the composition of seats at the parliament under a probable scenario, the note made an analysis on the basis of the estimates given in the election survey conducted by the A&G research company in February 2011 and the latest status of the regional compositions of MPs.

Regulations appropriate but insufficient

The analysis revealed that the regulation attempted by the YSK to improve "fairness" is appropriate but insufficient.

The study stated that it was possible to ensure a convergence in the value of votes (with respect to electing a MP) in different regions by increasing the number of election zones with one MP (only Bayburt, currently) and initiating regulatory changes for other election zones. The note also addressed the possible outcomes of such regulation.

The regulation had no significant impact

According to the analysis, the recent regulation by the YSK had no important impact on the parliament arithmetic. As per the new regulation, the AKP (Justice and Development Party) loses one seat and the MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) and Independent/BDP (Peace and Democracy Party) lose 2 seats each while the CHP (Republican People's Party) wins 5 seats.

Under the proposed regulation, Independent/BDP loses 2 MPs to the CHP. One remarkable point is that the executed and the proposed regulation are to the benefit of the CHP only. In other words, the existing unfairness - in negative terms - exclusively affects the CHP.

The note stressed that the issue to bear in mind is not that the YSK carries out the regulations that will ex-ante maximize the fairness of elections, the note concluded: "It should be emphasized that the fact that the regulations in question caused no significant difference in parliament arithmetic on the basis of the estimates for the 2011 elections does not imply that the regulation will prove futile under different circumstances (that is, different scenarios and shares in votes)."

Composition of Seats by the New, Old and the Proposed Regulations

(*)In the proposed method, the "regional weight" was calculated by dividing the population of a particular election zone to the total population; the weights calculated for each region were multiplied by 550 MPs and the results were rounded up to roughly calculate the number of MPs per election zone.

The parliament arithmetic with the proposed regulation in the 2007 elections

As the note suggested, if a fairer regulation with respect to the "value of one vote" had been introduced before 2007 elections, the CHP would have won 9 seats while the AKP, MP and Independent/BDP would have lost 2, 3 and 4 seats, respectively.

Table 4.  Composition of Seats in 2007: Realization and Proposed Regulation

Studies by Göksel and Çınar on this subject will be published by TEPAV with the title: "Türkiye'de Seçim Barajına ve Seçim Sistemi Değişikliklerine Yönelik Analizler ve Politika Önerileri".