ANKARA- TEPAV Retail Confidence Indicator (TEPE) April 2010 results were announced. Compared to the same period in the last year, TEPE increased by 9.0 points in April 2010 achieving the highest level ever. Total recovery since December 2009, the trough over the last year, is 18.4 points.

Prospective expectations continue moving in the positive zone: 48.3 percent of survey participants in April 2010 expect an improvement in their business activities over the three months ahead while 30.5 expect deterioration in their business activities. This signals a recovery by 19.1 points compared to April 2009.

Retail confidence in the EU average attained the positive zone for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. EU-27 average which stood 2.8 points above TEPE indicates that demand in the EU recovers more rapidly than in Turkey.

Pace of recovery is higher in sectors which started the season: The highest increase in TEPE in April 2010 compared to the same period in 2009 was in non-electrical household appliances sector followed by textiles and ready-made clothing and other retail. Along with the impact of the tax cuts introduced in April in the year before, the increase was lower in comparison despite the seasonal effects.

A comprehensive analysis of TEPE questions reveals the increase in the business activities over the previous three years was a determinant factor. Expectations for employment, which have turned positive for the first time since the beginning of the crisis in April 2010 turned downwards again implying that there is no permanent amelioration in employment. Expectations for price increases on the other hand draw attention to inflation in April.