I was reading the key findings of the Transatlantic Trends (TTs) 2014 survey the other day. One of them is Turks’ growing discontent with immigrants. People do not seem to be happy with the way their government is handling the Syrian crisis. 75% of respondents to the 2014 survey see emigration as a problem, which is up 29 points from 2013. That increase should ring alarm bells. That is also why the American plan to eradicate ISIL in Iraq and Syria is in Ankara’s interest. Let me explain.
There is much traffic on the Turkish-Syrian border lately. Jihadists are moving towards Syria while Syrians are moving towards Turkey. Ordinary Syrians, and lately Iraqis, seek shelter from jihadi onslaught. According to UN reports, there are now 9 million displaced Syrians, which is no less than 45% of Syria’s population. A third of those displaced have become refugees by leaving their country. After Lebanon, Turkey is the second-biggest destination for those people, the third being Jordan. The number of Syrian refugees in Turkey is now approaching 1.5 million, half of whom are in special camps in the border region. When compared with the 77 million Turks, 1.5 million refugees is a mere 2%. That would amount to 25% of Lebanese and 20% of Jordanians, so one might think that Turkey should have an easier time dealing with the situation. Yes and no. Turkey’s government is wealthier and better situated to set up camps, but Jordan and Lebanon, have first-hand experience with refugees. As Arab countries, they can also absorb the influx of Syrians to some extent. Turkey has not done anything of this sort in its modern history, and people are finding it hard to adjust.
According to the 2014 TTs survey, 60% of the Turks are saying that immigrants are coming to Turkey to seek asylum. This however, is only true in principle, not in law. Turkey made an amendment to the Geneva protocol in 1961, stating that it accepts only those seeking asylum as a result of “events in Europe.” That is generally interpreted to refer to events such as the Holocaust. It also means that anyone who isn’t fleeing humanitarian disasters in Europe cannot be classified as a refugee in Turkey. They may only be classified as “temporary asylum seekers.”
In Turkey, percent of people who think that immigrants are asylum seekers is three times the EU figure. So, Turks believe that immigrants are here to stay. And around 70% of Turks disapprove of their government’s handling of immigration. That looks much like the 70% of Americans disapproving of their government’s handling of immigration. The difference of course, is that the US has been dealing with immigration for the better part of the past century, while Turkey is getting a crash course. But no matter what happens next, the issue is here to stay.
The coalition against ISIL might stem the tide of refugees. The most important thing is to stop the two-way traffic on the border. If there is one thing the government focuses on, it should be this: No more Jihadist going to Syria, less Syrians coming to Turkey. The bigger the safe zone is in Northern Syria, the less Syrians will want to pick up and move. Turks are not used to permanent guests, and more of them will not make it easier to adapt.
This commentary was published in Hürriyet Daily News on 13.09.2014
