Discussion Points:
The pending Iraqi constitution:
- Does the constitution provide domestic and regional stability? Does the constitution exacerbate sectarian divisions in Iraq? Is there really a possibility of a civil war?
A federal constitution:
- What is the meaning of federalism?
- What type of federalism is under discussion?
- Is disintegration really a possibility?
What does the constitutional process in Iraq mean for Turkey?
- What are the Turkish fears over Shiite dominance?
- What are fears and scenarios confronting Ankara over Kurdish autonomy and the situation in Kirkuk?
The new Iraqi state:
- Secular or theocratic?
- What is the role of Islam in Iraq's future?

Panel Note:

Tepav | Epri Foreign Policy Studies organized a roundtable discussion to analyze the federalist Iraqi Constitution and the recent situation in Iraq with Joost R. Hiltermann from International Crisis Group (ICG) as the keynote speaker. On his way back from Northern Iraq, Hiltermann shared his opinions and impressions about the present conditions in the region in Ankara. Several academics, journalists and Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials were participants in the meeting, where Hiltermann also gave remarks on the most recently published briefing of ICG on "Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry".

In his speech, Hiltermann examined some of the controversial articles of the constitution that are open to interpretation due to their vague language. Touching on implications of the constitutional process on Turkey, he maintained that the current draft of the constitution addresses mostly issues that are of importance to the Iraqi Kurdish aspirations. He also argued that Kurdish region in Northern Iraq has the prospects of being relatively the most stable region of Iraq, requiring Turkey to adjust its Iraq policies accordingly. Hiltermann stated that there's an opportunity for both Turks and Iraqi Kurds to further trade and business interests in areas such as improvement of transportation facilities and infrastructure. Thus in the long run, enhancing economic relations would play a crucial role in building up stability in the region. On the other hand, pointing out the difficulty of maintaining internal stability in Northern Iraq, Hiltermann claimed that the stability of the region depended on the rivalry between Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

Hiltermann argued that the Iraqi people did not really have any input in the constitutional process. Nevertheless, he believes that the constitution will pass in the referendum that takes place on 15th of October this year and the Sunni-Turcoman opposition will not be as influential as expected. Yet, if the constitution is confirmed, radical Sunni groups are expected to accelerate their terrorist activities and it will be extremely difficult to avoid the possibility of civil conflicts in Iraq.


With regard to Iraq's relations with the other states in the region, Hiltermann mentioned that Iranian influence on Iraq is highly exaggerated. Moreover, what is happening in Iraq is contrary to the interests of Sunni-dominated regimes of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. These countries are worried about the possibility that Iraq will fall apart.

Regarding the US role in the constitutional process, Hiltermann stated that the only way to reach a consensus over the constitution would be to persuade the US officials to go back to the negotiation table with the community leaders before the referendum. Hiltermann argued that different opinion circles in The United States have been biased in interpreting the constitutional process and failed to use their weight in providing reconciliation.