Evaluation Note / Neva Sadıkoğlu

"Turks increasingly do not believe that their country will ever be admitted to the European Union. A new study by the German Turkish Foundation for Education and Scientific Research shows that only 17% of Turks believe that Turkey will become an EU member. This is a 9% decrease from last year’s figures released by the German Marshall Fund and represents a 61% decrease from the figures released by Gallup in 2004.

This loss of faith can be attributed mainly to the deadlock in Turkey’s EU accession process, the political rhetoric of French and German politicians questioning Turkey’s membership prospect, and the impact of the European economic crisis occurring at a time when Turkey’s economy is booming.

Turkey was granted EU candidate status in 1999 and accession negotiations started in 2005. Since then, only 1 of the 35 chapters of the acquis communautaire (the legal criteria for membership) has been closed, 18 remain blocked and no more can be closed. This is due to Turkey’s on-going dispute with Cyprus (an EU member since 2004 currently holding the European Council Presidency where the EU Member States heads of state or government are represented) and certain EU Member States objections. This impasse in negotiations has been coupled with public statements from the former French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggesting that Turkey’s EU membership would not be guaranteed even if Turkey fully conformed with the acquis communautaire..."