Evaluation Note / Burcu Gültekin Punsmann, PhD.

"In the early 1990s, the days of Turkey sharing a land border with the USSR ended and it discovered its Caucasian neighbours. For the first time in several centuries (with the exception of 1918-1920), Turkey and Russia have no land frontier. Turkey was highly cautious not to provoke Moscow in its first contacts with the former Soviet countries putting forward an all-encompassing approach. The newly rediscovered Caucasian borderlands transformed the Turkish-Soviet border in an area of instability and brought the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia, reminding of the recurrent Turkish-Russian wars of the past centuries. The development of the perception of the former Soviet geography as a Turkic world is being strenghtened by the American regional strategy prone to see Turkey as the Western bulwark against Russia. Turkey; wary to lose its strategic asset within NATO, accomodates well during the 1990’s with its function of flank and frontline state within the Alliance. In the 1990’s the ambiguous idea of Turkishness becomes an important thread in the conduct of the Turkish policy in the region leading to a confrontational stance with Russia and pro-Azerbaijani bias in regional conflicts.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project is the cornerstone of Turkey’s policy towards South Caucasus. Turkish regional policy will remain locked in the framework of the BTC pipeline: this narrow approach is limiting Turkey’s engagement and the shaping of strategic thinking. The strenghtening of the bilateral Turkish-Russian links will help to overcome the remaining tensions in the 2000’s. Turkey will progressively overcome the legacy of the Cold War in its relationships with Russia, which has a direct impact on Turkey’s strategy in South Caucasus..."