Policy Note "Birth Pains of Autonomy in the TRNC: Communal Existence Rallies must evolve into an "institutional economic rationalization" movement" by TEPAV Research Associate Mehmet Ratip was published.

ANKARA - TEPAV's evaluation about the economic future of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) stressed the need and the trend for the evolution of the social reaction into a movement of "economic rationalization".

Policy Note "Birth Pains of Autonomy in the TRNC: Communal Existence Rallies must evolve into an "institutional economic rationalization" movement" by TEPAV  Research Associate Mehmet Ratip was published.

The note made assessments on the basis of the public opinion poll conducted by the Public Research and Consultancy Center (KADEM). Stating that the latest poll conducted by KADEM gives further insights about the other aspects of the claims for a new economic-politic structure that is purified of the unproductive ties established between the Northern Cyprus and Turkey and that is autonomous in governance and public finance in particular as well as about the perspective of partnership and cooperation and the equality between the TRNC and Turkey foreseen by such claims, the note assessed:

"In the light of the poll conducted after the Communal Existence Rally on January 28 to protest the economic measures implemented in the context of the "2010-2012 Program to Improve the Efficiency of the Public Sector and the Competitiveness of the Private Sector" it is possible to trace other symptoms for the future of the Northern Cyprus economy.

Those of the opinion that the economic package must be abolished or that a new package must be prepared sums to 73% of the respondents revealing that a vast majority of the Turkish Cypriots are against the current economic package. This could be read as the reflection of the will of Turkish Cypriots to seize the initiative and turn the crisis that erupted with reference to the economic package on the basis of laying claims on autonomy-driven fiscal discipline and economic governance mechanisms into an opportunity. After all, 37.6% of the respondents seem to be aware of the fact that the abolition of the economic package is necessary but insufficient and thus must be replaced with another one."

The assessment emphasized that the poll conducted by KADEM reinforces our finding that the evolution of the rallies into a movement of "economic rationalization" depends on the existence of a decision making process that involves the widest participation possible. The note continued by evaluating the answers to the question "Who should prepare the new package" and said:

"The principle preferences represented respectively by the 40% and 31% of the respondents assign a role for the officials of the RoT in the preparation of the new economic package, reiterating that the perception of "hostility towards Turkey" brought by the rallies can be highly misleading. Nevertheless, the results highlight a vital challenge to decide the economic future of the TRNC through a participatory process. It is quite difficult to ensure the support of the large sects of the society for the package on which the opposition parties and the trade unions cannot reach an accord, particularly given the size of the social reaction in the rallies.

Despite all, the striking picture before us reveals that the unsustainable state in the TRNC inevitably requires an "economic package". To be able to stake claims about the new TRNC, the wide opposition voiced in the Communal Existence Rallies must set forth its vision for a comprehensive economic package."

The note highlighted the finding that the symptoms indicate that the TRNC has entered a process where it is vital to prove its adequacy and concluded: "The futile debates on the island cannot go beyond the "whether to keep or abolish the economic package" question while it is much in evidence that to prove fruitful for all the parties involved, the debate must follow from the question "can we form the ground for consensus for an economic rationalization program that is bitter and difficult but wise and beneficial in the long-term?".