TEPAV stated that social globalization triggered the rebellion wave in Maghreb and Egypt by raising awareness about the relative deprivation while the high rate of youth unemployment and hikes in food prices also have created a suitable environment for rebellion.

ANKARA- TEPAV says the rebellions in Tunisia and Egypt are related to the "unhappiness of the Arab streets".  Stating that the high rate of unemployment and the hikes in food prices created a suitable environment for rebellion, TEPAV stated: "Social globalization triggered the rebellion wave in Maghreb and Egypt by raising awareness about the relative deprivation that has been suffered on Arab streets for decades."

Evaluation note with the title "Riot and Rebellion from Maghreb to Egypt: What do Arab Streets want from the Palaces?" by TEPAV Researchers H. Ekrem Cunedioğlu, Ömer Fazlıoğlu and Ü. Barış Urhan was published. The evaluation said: "The wave of riot and rebellion that originated in Maghreb and spread to Egypt can be categorized as a relative deprivation oriented mass movement." Referring to the relative deprivation theory that explains mass movements with a perspective based on social psychology, the note stressed that the said the theory refers to the perception of individuals and groups of the deprivation from achievements that relevant for the imagination of the future in relation to other individuals or groups rather than in absolute terms. The note added: "the feeling of deprivation develops as one realizes the gap between his/her expectation and capabilities. It appears that unemployed and unhappy Arab streets from Maghreb to Egypt see the Arab palaces as an impediment to accessing the set of life opportunities of the time."

Weak economy and oppression insufficient to explain the movement

TEPAV evaluation note examined the economic dynamics and oppressive regime to identify the underlying causes of the wave of rebellion in Maghreb and Egypt. The note assessed:

"Among the indicators named as the usual suspects only the high unemployment rate has any explanatory power. High youth unemployment and hikes in food prices have created a suitable environment for rebellion, however, over the same period, similar economic problems have been felt in politically more stable countries like Turkey even at a higher degree in real terms. Therefore, we believe that it is not possible to explain the rebellion solely in relation to economic dynamics.

Besides the economic approaches, some accounts argue that the authoritarian and oppressive tendencies of the Arab regimes also have triggered the wave of rebellion. Between 1990 and 2009 the level of civil and political liberties did not change in Tunisia. Over this period, civil liberties in particular improved slightly in Egypt. Thus, the riots on Arab streets cannot be explained on the basis of the oppressive regimes of the Arab palaces."

The Main Cause: The Unhappiness of the Arab Streets

TEPAV's evaluation emphasized that according to the happiness index developed in the light of the results of perception surveys reveals, the level of happiness in Egypt has been decreasing steeply since 2002. The evaluation continued:

"The mean of the range which stood at 6.33 in 2002, decreased to 5.23 in 2006 and to 4.6 in 2008. Then, why did the level of happiness and perception of life among people living in Egypt deteriorate after 2002? We believe that the Arab streets' becoming increasingly aware of the relative deprivation they encounter played a major role in their becoming increasingly unhappy. As it appears, the Arab streets have started to consider the oppressive and ill rule of Arab palaces as an impediment to their future imagination."

Did the Social Globalization and Social Networks Trigger the Rebellion?

The note said that taking into account the function of the Internet and social networks in raising awareness about relative deprivation, it is of great importance to examine the impacts of social globalization across Maghreb and Egypt. In this respect, the note maintained:

"The most striking detail the KOF Index of Globalization reveals is the significant leap in Egypt in terms of social globalization between 1990 and 2000. In the said period, indicators on social globalization increased by 93.81% in Egypt as compared to 21.73% in Tunisia and 43.88% in Turkey. In the light of this data our hypothesis is that social globalization triggered the rebellion wave in Maghreb and Egypt by raising awareness about the relative deprivation that has been suffered on Arab streets for decades. The high rate of youth unemployment and hikes in food prices also have created a suitable environment for rebellion."