In the past year, a frequently asked question in Turkish economic discourse was whether Türkiye might face a trajectory similar to Argentina—marked by runaway inflation, debt default, and a potential program agreement with the IMF. Essentially: Would Türkiye become Argentina?

Over the past two years, both Türkiye and Argentina have experienced significant political and economic transitions. Türkiye, with the appointment of Mehmet Şimşek as Minister of Treasury and Finance, adopted a more orthodox economic approach. Though it avoided seeking IMF assistance, it pursued a stabilization strategy often dubbed an "IMF-less IMF program," marked by austerity and aggressive interest rate hikes.

Argentina, on the other hand, elected Javier Milei as president in late 2023, who launched a “shock therapy” program grounded in free-market reforms and a shrinking role for the state. By April 2025, Argentina had entered a 48-month IMF program agreement.

From 2023 to 2025, both countries adopted orthodox economic frameworks to curb inflation, restore fiscal discipline, and rebuild international credibility. While Argentina slashed inflation from over 200% to around 60% through painful austerity and sharp currency devaluation, it also saw poverty rates climb above 50%. Türkiye, meanwhile, initially allowed the lira to depreciate, then raised policy rates to 50%, bringing inflation down from over 80% to below 40%, while maintaining 3–4% growth. Türkiye chose a more gradual path, while Argentina opted for rapid, high-cost adjustments.

You may read evaluation note from here.