PROGRAM HOLD?

Treasury Cash Balance Deteriorating

As of the end of February, Treasury cash deficit increased by 49.4%, reaching a surplus of 602.6 billion TL. The imbalance between rising expenditures—particularly interest payments—and cash revenues has further accumulated during this period (Annex 1).

In response, the Treasury has been attempting to limit cash outflows through additional measures since the last week of March. In meetings and communications with spending institutions, cash disbursements have at times been restricted to prioritizing only tax liabilities and social security premium payments by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance  (MoTF). In the coming days, additional tightening measures appear inevitable.

Table 1. Budget Balance and Cash Balance

Source: MoTF, own estimation

The Divergence Between Budget Balance and Cash Balance Continues in 2025

As of 2025, the divergence between the budget balance and the cash balance has continued. By the end of February, the cash deficit surpassed the budget deficit by 34.1%, a higher level than the previous year. As emphasized in TEPAV’s budget evaluation reports and bulletins, the budget and cash balance figures have been diverging significantly since 2024, primarily due to investment-related earthquake expenditures being recorded under deferred accounts.

You may read evaluation note from here.