TEPE had the lowest value in a third quarter since 2009.

In September 2014, TEPE declined month-on-month by 6.7 points and year-on-year by 9 points. The TEPAV Retail Confidence Index had a value of -1.1 in the first nine months of 2013, compared to -6.7 in the same period in 2014. The retail sector therefore performed worse than 2013 in 2014.

Concerning 3^rd quarter figures, retail confidence was at -7.9 in 2014, compared to -1.5 in 2014 and -11.8 in 2009. This is the lowest TEPE value recorded in a third quarter since 2009.

Concerning sub-sectors, the highest year-on-year improvement was in the electrical appliances, radio, and television sector. The volume of business activities compared to past periods as well as the expectations for the future deteriorated both month-on-month and year-on-year. Retail confidence in the EU maintained the downward trend for the 4th consecutive month.

TEPE which had moved up in July and August had a value of -11.3 in September, declining month-on-month by 6.7 points and year-on-year by 9 points. The decline was driven by the weakening of business volume compared to past 3 months and of sales expectations in the next 3 months.

In September 2014, 31.6 percent of TEPE survey participants declared that they expected business activities to improve in the next 3 months while 37.9 percent expect business activities to decline. 30.5 percent of the participants do not expect business activities.

Following the surge in July and August, sales expectations headed down in September. The balance value of the expectations for the next three months was 11 points. Sales expectations for the next 3 months declined year-on-year by 5.7 points and month-on-month by 2.9 points.

Concerning the first 9 months of the year, sales expectations were weaker than in 2013. Similarly, sales expectations in the third quarter were weaker in 2014 than in 2013.

In September 2014, 9.4 percent of TEPE survey participants declared an improvement in their business activities compared to the year before while 56.6 percent declared deterioration. 34.1 percent of the participants declared that business activities did not change compared to September 2013.

The balance value of the volume of business activities compared to the same month in the year before, which increased in July, had a value of -54.1 in September 2014. Business volume compared to the year before decreased by 27.1 points compared to August 2014 and by 22.5 points compared to September 2013.

The anticipation for recovery concerning the first nine months of a year hit the lowest value since 2009. Alike, anticipation for recovery was significantly weaker in 2014 than in 2013 concerning third quarters.

The best performer of September in terms of year-on-year change was the electrical appliances, radio, and televisions sector, followed by the motor vehicles sector. All but the mentioned two declined year-on-year. The decline was smaller than the average in the food, beverages, and tobacco products, and textile, ready-made clothing, and footwear sectors. Decline in the non-specialized stores, “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc), and furniture, lighting equipment and household articles sectors was larger than the average, with the latter suffering the sharpest decline.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results reveal that all expectations and conditions expect for the expectation for sales prices in the next 3 months, deteriorated compared to both August 2014 and September 2013.

The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index had a value of 1.8 in September 2014, declining month-on-month by 2.8 points and year-on-year by 1.6 points. Turkey performed worse than the EU-28 and the Eurozone in terms of both month-on-month and year-on-year change. Turkey was the one of the two countries amongst the EU-28 with the sharpest decline in retail confidence.

As was in August, Greece had the highest year-on-year improvement in retail confidence across the EU-28. It was followed by Southern Cyprus, Hungary, and Sweden. The United Kingdom, Turkey, France, and Bulgaria declined year-on-year. Denmark had the highest month-on-month improvement. The EU-28 Retail Confidence index was weaker than the Eurozone index both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Expectations in Konya retail sector down month-on-month and year-on-year

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In August, TEPE had a value of -12.1 compared to KOPE at -0.6. Having maintained positive values since June 2014, Konya’s retail sector moved down to the negatives in September. Year-on-year, KOPE declined by 5.7 points while TEPE declined by 10.5 points. Month-on-month, KOPE declined by 6.1 points. Konya’s retail sector had a higher value than the EU-28 Index and overall TEPE index. The decline was driven by the weak expectations for sales in the next 3 months, and the rise in the level of inventories.

The anticipation for business recovery in Konya’s retail sector declined year-on-year; expectations for orders, sales, employment, and sales prices weakened both month-on-month and year-on-year.