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A New Era in the Black Sea: A Struggle for Power and Security Beyond the War

Evaluation Note / N. Murat Ersavcı

The Russia-Ukraine war has changed the strategic nature of the Black Sea. The region is no longer merely the maritime front of the war; it has become a multilayered security environment where energy and food security, commercial navigation, maritime law, unmanned warfare technologies, and NATO-Russia rivalry intersect. Türkiye is at the center of this transformation.

More than four and a half years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine on February 24, 2022. During the initial phase of the war, the Black Sea was regarded as an important but secondary front of the conflict. Today, however, the nature of the Black Sea has changed significantly.

The Black Sea is no longer merely the maritime front of the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is now at the center of a multilayered geopolitical struggle extending from energy security and global food trade to maritime law, unmanned warfare technologies, NATO-Russia rivalry, and Türkiye’s diplomatic room for maneuver.

The prolongation of the war is accelerating this transformation. In late 2025, two tankers, Kairos and Virat, reportedly associated with Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which it uses to circumvent sanctions, were targeted by Ukrainian unmanned naval vehicles. Ukraine’s Security Service stated that the attacks were carried out on November 28–29, 2025; according to news reports, the vessels sustained heavy damage and were put out of service. The fact that the ships were sailing toward the Port of Novorossiysk to load oil indicated that the attacks were directed not only at the cargo being transported but also at the logistics chain supporting Russia’s seaborne energy trade. Türkiye expressed concern that the attacks had taken place within its exclusive economic zone.






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