Commentaries
Fatih Özatay, PhD - [Archive]
What surprise? 26/03/2011 - Viewed 1026 times
When you make clear facts a matter of debate, you cannot save time to focus on the actually debatable dimensions of the decision.
I had no doubt that we are living in a very odd country. That I was right was reiterated again two days ago. What other adjective than "very odd" can we use if the attempt to ban an unpublished book is furthered to the next step? Think about it: if the next step is to prosecute those who are in an effort to write a "dangerous" book and the people they have talked to, how can we define the characteristics of Turkey?
Anyway; let me do what I know the best and talk about the economy. We know that the economy of Turkey is not less odd. The latest example to this was that the decision the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) took on Wednesday was considered to be a surprise move. One could have made any comment about the mentioned decision. But a vast majority stated what was least likely to be mentioned and we witnessed comments such as how the decisions took the markets by surprise. God, give me patience!
The Bank has declared before
The following quotation is taken from the 17th paragraph of the summary of Monetary Policy Committee meeting on December 16, 2010 (issued on December 28, 2010): "The effects of today's decisions on both price and financial stability will be monitored closely and additional measures will be implemented if necessary." If this is too outdated for you, let me give a more recent example.
The following lines are taken from the 13th paragraph of the summary of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on February 13, 2011 (issued on February 22, 2011), that is, the summary of the meeting right before the latest meeting the results of which were a "surprise":
"In light of these assessments, in order to contain the risks towards price stability and financial stability, the Committee has decided to closely monitor the tightening impact of the implemented policy mix-a low policy rate, a wide interest corridor and high reserve requirement ratios-until the next meeting, and take additional measures along the same line, if needed." The original text was not bold, I made it bold.
The message is clear
The words of the CBT are quite clear, right? It says: "I will take additional measures along the same line, if needed." So the latest decision is seen as a surprise because the CBT did not identify what the additional measures would be? No, it is not. The mentioned paragraph is highly clear: the policy composition is expressed; it included high required reserve ratios. It also adds that additional measures will be taken along the same line.
So which part of this is a surprise to you? When you make clear facts a matter of debate, you cannot save time to focus on the actually debatable dimensions of the decision.
This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 26.03.2011
