Güven Sak, PhD - [Archive]

Does the Libyan path lead to Iran? 22/03/2011 - Viewed 1254 times

This time it would be wise to adopt an optimistic caution. The need for an export insurance mechanism in Turkey is increasing.

Our neighborhood has been a mess for some time now. We are witnessing developments to which we are not accustomed. The military action aimed at creating a no-fly zone in Libya has increased the regional uncertainty. Therefore it will be wise to take a look at the repercussions of the activities in the region for Turkey's economy once again after the military operations. If you are interested, please read on.

First, with your leave, let me take a look at the general picture. It all began in Tunisia. Egypt in a way followed. The road forked at Libya. Either the president of the Mickey Mouse state in Libya (no need to mention his name) would vanquish those who dared to not like him with the guns and equipment in their hands, or some others would prevent the president of the Mickey Mouse state in Libya from using armaments against his people. By the way, guess who ranks the second after Italy in sales of weapons to Libya since the lifting of the embargo. Yes, yes, France. France, which is leading the air operation.  "Oh, I cannot believe this! He is using the guns and equipment to kill the people who do not like him!" Sorry, but what else did you expect? Here is the time to put down the first conclusion:  "Never ever sell arms to made-up countries."

Then it was all like in Robert Frost's poem: "Two roads diverged in a yellow wood /.../and I took the one less traveled / And that has made all the difference." With the Libyan operation launched the week before, the international community took the road less traveled. It chose uncertainty. We will see what difference this will make.

The first difference is in fact apparent: If the forty-year dictator had been able to use his guns without the help of anyone else, it would have taken more courage to carry out demonstrations in other parts of the neighborhood. We must see the association in the fact that as blood was shed in Libya, so it was in Yemen. It is no coincidence that following the operations against Libya, the people in Syria poured into streets or that some dozens of protestors in Jeddah were surrounded by fifty police cars. This is where the second point lies: This time the intervention had a legitimate reason and thus the operation was a multilateral one. The case resembles Bosnia rather than Iraq. The driving force was social/cultural globalization. In fact, if you noticed, we are watching the future.

The determination of the international community to disallow the forceful oppression of domestic opposition has opened a new page shaping our region. The international community has confirmed the "right to blow whistles." Before I said that we were yet in the whistling phase. Now things are about to go beyond whistling. Honestly, I believe that the route of the Libyan operation might approach Iran. The Nawruz message of President Obama to the youth of Iran also must be read from this perspective. At least it seems that way to me. Let this be the third point.

Previously, I said, "Fasten your seatbelts, please," with regard to the impact of these developments on Turkey's economy. Let me restate my view with keen warnings. Regional uncertainties have not been reduced, but have increased with the operation launched against Libya.  We must expect more chaos in our neighborhood. This is the first conclusion. The slowdown brought on by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the resulting rise in oil prices will have influence in the short term while the impact of the regional restructuring will have an effect in the long term. This is the second conclusion. Caution is a blessing. This time it would be wise to adopt an optimistic caution. The need for an export insurance mechanism in Turkey is increasing. This is the third conclusion.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 22.03.2011