Turkey has to improve its position in the world human development ranking. Only then can the fertility rate increase to three.

I recall an article from three years ago by Umberto Eco when I am talking about certain incidences. One passage of the article said that anyone who started watching Hamlet after the beginning of the second act would not be able to understand why Hamlet was being so rude to his uncle, who seemed to be a decent guy, but who had killed Hamlet’s father and married his mother in the first act. When writing on any issue, one should keep in mind that somebody might have missed the first act. I always keep this in mind. But I realized that the other day when I wrote about the first act, I neglected the possibility that some might also have missed the second one. So let me make up for it today.

Forty years ago, the fertility rate of Sweden was two while it was five in Turkey. Sweden has maintained the fertility rate of four decades ago while that of Turkey has decreased to two. So I argued, “Turkey’s fertility rate is now the same as that of Sweden.” But the emphasis of the commentary was on Turkey; I was not concerned much about Sweden. The story on Sweden is sort of the second act for Turkey. Today let me talk about the second act. It was depicted successfully in an article published in Nature journal a couple of years ago. Sweden’s current level of welfare makes a positive contribution to the fertility rate. Good news! Good news, dear prime minister; the trick is taking the rights steps. If the GDP per capita reaches $25,000, the declining trend in the fertility rate will be reversed. It’s not something one can manipulate; it requires a solid economic growth policy. I think the 10^th Development Plan has adopted the right approaches from this perspective. It can be successful if supported politically.

The Nature article was authored by Mikko Myrskyla and Hans-Peter Kohler of the Population Studies Center, the University of Pennsylvania, and Francesco C. Billari of Bocconi University. According to this, when the Human Development Index (HDI) score of a country exceeds a threshold level, fertility rates start increasing. The HDI is a composite index of educational attainment, life standards and health in terms of both access to and quality of services. It also takes into account life quality, gender equality, innovation, and technology. The study reveals that when the HDI score of a country exceeds the 0.90-0.95 threshold, the fertility rate starts increasing. Sweden’s HDI score is 0.97. Korea’s is 0.91, and France’s is 0.95. And how about Turkey? Stagnant around 0.77, in between Azerbaijan and Jordan.

Let me put this into context for a better understanding. Turkey is the 17^th largest economy of the world, but 90^th in human development ranking. The level of life quality of the people living in the 17^th largest economy is 90^th out of 186 countries. Turkey has changed radically. Its economy has grown. But its people have not been able to benefit from this to the fullest extent. The growth of the Turkish economy has yet to be translated into a higher life quality for the people. This is bad. If we want the fertility rate to increase from two to three, the way to do this is to improve the life quality of the people. The global standard of life quality is evident. Turkey has to improve its position in the human development ranking. Only then can the fertility rate increase to three. Only then can dysfunctional incentives work. Sweden is a good role model. So is France.

Politics has to ease and simplify our lives, and enhance our life quality. Actions speak louder than words. Just check the Human Development Index results for the last years. How much progress did Turkey made in the ranking since 2007? Hush hush!

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 26.07.2013