While we are dealing with romantic staff in the Middle East, Russia is building a railway link through its territories between China and Europe.

Some five years ago, an American friend of mine said to me, “I don’t understand why you concern yourself with the Middle East. The future of the world and Turkey passes through the Caucasus. You should instead monitor the Black Sea area. One who can find a cheap product transport route from the east to the west will eventually strike gold.” I was not sure what he was talking about then. Now I understand. Turkey has a large production hub in its east and a large market in its west. iPads and other popular electronic devices are produced in China and sold in European centers like Berlin, London, Paris, and Vienna. The route that will transfer iPads from the manufacturing to consumption centers will now pass through Turkey’s north. The Silk Road is opening up again. While we are dealing with romantic ideas in the Middle East, Russia is building a railway link through its territories between China and Europe. Russia appears to be winning the first round of the New Great Game in Central Asia. The Russian railway giant RJD is outstripping Turkey’s State Railways (TCDD). Let me tell you how.

According to a story in the New York Times last weekend, Hewlett Packard is planning to ship its laptops manufactured in China to the consumption centers of Europe by freight train via Kazakhstan and Russia. The Silk Road was coming to life again, the story said. Other American companies also were planning to use the route. You might suppose that the main concern of the world is the Middle East. But it is not, if you ask me. The region will rake in and eventually find its balance. The death toll is definitely heartbreaking, but the turn of events suggests that the Middle East will not settle for another decade of this. Meanwhile, however, linking the manufacturing centers of Asia and the consumption centers of Europe with railways seems to be one of the chief matters today.

Until today, China has grown rapidly, but exclusively on its eastern coasts. Five years ago, everyone though that the eastern ports of China could not bear the traffic. Now we have another movement. Relative labor costs were on the rise in eastern China, lowering the attractiveness of the country for western companies. China was hence losing its relative competitiveness. In response, it launched a rapid urbanization program in an effort to maintain the rural to urban migration of 20 million Chinese people a year. Foreign companies in the eastern China started shifting their operations to the west of the country. The popular manufacturing centers Shanghai and Shenzen were replaced by Chongqing and Chengdu. Soon we will witness a shift further to the west, towards Kazakhstan.

As manufacturing centers have shifted towards western China, shipping goods to European consumption centers by railway has become to be more profitable than shipping by sea. It has become less attractive to truck goods to the eastern ports of China and then send them by ship towards India and the Suez Canal. The cost of sending goods by train through Kazakhstan and Russia has been decreasing. The sea route is stil cheeper; but it takes five weeks while the rail route takes three. To minimize the level of inventories, the two-week difference is of great significance for the companies of the west. That’s why the Silk Road is being brought back to life.

So, what is in it for Turkey? Being a part of this transportation route. Long-distance railway transportation is a highly profitable area important for railway companies. The Russian railway giant RJD is well aware of this. Turkey has yet to design an international transportation policy. International container transportation requires precision and stability. These distinguish the RJD. Turkey’s transportation policy is focused on domestic high-speed passenger transportation rather than on international container transportation. You know why? Because containers cannot vote. The Russians are capable of global thinking, while Turkey’s agenda is utterly local. A route through which containers pass is likely to become a route for oil pipelines in the future.

That’s what I see from this distance. Politics does not necessarily deal with small matters. It has to think big.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 23.07.2013