Forty years ago, the fertility rate of Sweden was two while it was five in Turkey. Sweden has maintained the fertility rate of four decades ago while that of Turkey has decreased to two.
What do you think is the chief determinant factor that affects our lives? Technological change, if you ask me. More precisely, the rapid diffusion of technological change throughout the world. It used to be a concern for some in the West, at the center of our civilization. Today, however, it has become popularized. The access to innovations has become democratized. Our civilization is a technical one and technology has spread throughout the world. Engineers raise buildings in the same way everywhere. Surgical operations do not have a language, religion, or race. If you are a doctor, you are so everywhere. It is the same process which provides equal access to the benefits of technology to everyone around the world and which makes people become alike. Life styles are becoming uniform everywhere. This is why the average number of children born to a woman in Turkey has decreased to the level of Sweden. Any other argument is statistically blind. It is like building castles in the air.
I was checking some comparisons between Sweden and Turkey. Forty years ago, the fertility rate, or the average number of children born to a woman, was two in Sweden while it was five in Turkey. Sweden has maintained its fertility rate of four decades ago while that of Turkey has decreased to two. This means that the three children per family debate the prime minister has been fueling is irrelevant. Just mark my words. Forty years ago, having five children was the norm for Turkey. Back then, 35 percent of the population was urban. Today this rate has increased to 75 percent. Prime Minister Erdoğan’s promotion of three children per family would have had a meaning four decades ago, but it does not today. The productivity of rural to urban immigrants tripled, despite the poor performance of the country in stimulating productivity. Meanwhile fertility rates have decreased by more than 50 percent. This is the fact and anything beyond it is hot air. Period.
Swedish academic Hans Rossling’s Gapminder has a comprehensive dataset. Which countries receive foreign aid? Countries with a per capita income of $1,500 and fertility rate of three or more. Reading it backwards, countries that contribute to international aid programs have a fertility rate below three. For some time now, Turkey has not been a recipient but a donor of aid. After having made it to this league, the norm is to have a fertility rate below three. The number of children per family might be above the national average among Kurdish families, which some might consider disturbing. Indeed, this is what bothers Turkey’s elite. But swimming against the current is not the solution. The solution is to integrate the non-urbanized and high-poverty regions with the Turkish economy. Integration brings good to all.
And another figure: Four decades ago, life expectancy in Sweden was 23 years higher than that in Turkey. Currently, the difference is eight years. The average life expectancy of a baby born in Turkey is only 8 years shorter than that of a peer in Sweden. How? Not because of successful health reforms, but because of technological advancements. With the democratization of the access to the benefits of technology, all parts of the world have been becoming similar. The majority of the issues you fret over do not have any significance within the big picture. Let me state that here.
This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 29.03.2013
