Turkey is different from Asia in a negative way
Güven Sak, PhD
11 May 2012
Estimates suggest that Turkey will be the only country in the Asia-Pacific region where growth will be halved and inflation will increase by 50 percent. You all know that we are angry with Standard and Poor’s (S&P) lately. First, out prime minister, who is from the Black Sea region said, “I do not know the S&P.” Like in an anecdote from the Black Sea region: Temel lent Dursun some money and never got it back. He reminded Dursun of his debt, first implicitly and then explicitly, but Dursun did not seem to care. Having run out of patience, Temel sued Dursun. It appears that back then the court system was not like it is today. Otherwise, Temel would not have gone to court as it is the best way to guarantee that you will not get your money back. Anyway, in the courtroom, the judge aske
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Open the curtains already
Fatih Özatay, PhD
10 May 2012
Wouldn’t it be better if those praising an institution could open the curtain of their eyes for a minute when assessing the circumstances? To begin with, we have to accept that it is reasonable if inflation diverges from target in a year or two. As long as the relevant central bank explains to the actors, to whom it declared the target and asked to set wage raises, interest rates and pricing strategies accordingly, the reasons of the divergence and convinces those actors that it had taken all steps possible to prevent such an outcome.
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Turkish citizens in uniform
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
10 May 2012
Looking into the debates, officers and NCOs have recognized that the “age of heroism” is coming to an end. The Turkish military has been passing through an interesting period. Arresting generals and officers has now become an ordinary event. Criticizing the military in the media has mostly turned into a “contempt ceremony.” This is understandable for “democrats,” victims of the past and the former sympathizers of the military.
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How to move from destruction to construction?
Güven Sak, PhD
08 May 2012
You need a small team and independent action for destruction. For construction, however, these are not enough. Paul Krugman’s new book End This Depression Now has been on the shelves for a week now. And the latest book of Osman Ulagay, Türkiye Kime Kalacak – To Whom will Turkey be left?, was released two weeks ago. I downloaded the first one on my Kindle, bought the second one, and read both of them last weekend. Both are interested not in how we came to this point, but how we can turn things around. Krugman focuses on the way out of the 2008 crisis while Ulagay seeks to find out how the transformation process that accelerated with the Justice and Development Party taking over power in 2002 can progress to the next phase. In short, both Krugman and Ulagay are interested not in today, but i
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A different perspective might be useful
Fatih Özatay, PhD
08 May 2012
After all, price stability (or anti-inflationary policies) is among the chief aims of the CBT. The last two inflation reports by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) have the same graphs as Figure 1. It appears that the message it delivers is of key importance for the CBT. The graph compares the value of the lira with ten emerging market currencies since October 2010, when the new monetary policy framework was launched. Emerging market economies referred to are Brazil, Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, S. Africa, Indonesia, Korea and Colombia. Before the graphs, repots explain: “...(The CBT) also reacted to excessive exchange rate deviations from economic fundamentals on either side.” Right after this sentence, readers are guided to the figures.
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Do Turks Prefer Urban Land Over Savings?
07 May 2012
Our weak savings performance is perhaps the only issue upon which economists watching Turkey agree. Among them, some consider low savings as driven by low growth, and state that when other factors limiting growth are eliminated, the savings ratio will improve on its own.[1] Others argue that low savings is the main cause of low growth, and thus improving savings is the precondition for improving growth. [2] I don’t know which one is my position yet, but I am ever more convinced that there is a causal relationship between the unplanned urbanization in Turkey and the savings rate problem, and thus, growth. Today I would like to state three observations on this causality.
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Greece upgraded, Turkey downgraded?
Güven Sak, PhD
05 May 2012
Turkey’s powerful record does not change the fact that its economy is now highly vulnerable to sudden shifts. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Turkey. It has not changed the country’s credit rating, but lowered its outlook from “positive” to “stable.”
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Dani Rodrik was right again
Güven Sak, PhD
04 May 2012
The nation-state or national decision-making mechanism cannot go together with democracy and globalization. Dani Rodrik is a Turkish economist and a professor at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is a first-class researcher. He used to study industrial policies predominantly and he is the founding father of TEPAV’s work on industrial policy For a long time, he also he has been studying the dynamics of globalization. Looking at the unending economic crisis of Europe, I think Dani Rodrik is right once again. Let me tell you why.
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Implications were not on the game but on the audience
Fatih Özatay, PhD
03 May 2012
During the months ahead, we will witness the reflection of the inflation phenomenon onto the game. The CBT will keep the funding cost at high levels. No, the title does not refer to the match-fixing probe of the Turkish Football Federation that turned into an unresolved mess. I am referring to the monetary policy implemented during 2011, excluding December. If you wish, the period can be extended to cover the last weeks of 2010, as well.
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Bright Ideas on Syria
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
03 May 2012
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu delivered a speech regarding the Middle East in general and Syria on Apr 24. His remarks were quite interesting and decorated with “foreign policy values of today’s world”. During all of his speech he emphasized that his government absolutely does not pursue religious, ethnic and sectarian differences. Again, he explained that they do not intend to change the regime. It was exciting.The speech has got a series of messages for both the international and domestic public. I want to focus on two subjects regarding the speech. After all, like Davutoğlu said “a new order is being set - we are setting a new order in the Middle East” and we are witnesses to this.The argument used by Davutoğlu to criticize the opposition at parliament was the first thing
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