Turkey is among the top 100 countries that disrespect women
Güven Sak, PhD
26 June 2012
If Turkey could improve its female labor force participation rate to that of South Korea, it could have a national income of $1.1 trillion today. What is the main distinguishing feature of the present era? I increasingly think that the current era is that of premade lists. We have lists of the largest avenues and the most crowded cities. It is very easy to compare your country with others. Figures are easily accessible. In the past, it needed effort to prepare any kind of list. Today, it is possible to compare any two things and identify the position of your county in the world rank. The list of best and worst countries for women was announced in late 2011. There are 165 countries on the list, and Turkey ranks 114th. That is, Turkey is not a good country to live for women. According to thi
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On inflation
Fatih Özatay, PhD
23 June 2012
If price of crude oil does not change, the future performance of inflation will depend on the exchange rate developments. In recent commentaries, I assessed economic developments with a growth-based perspective. Today, I want to comment on inflation. Consumer price inflation that floated around 10 percent since December and reached 11 percent in April has dropped sharply in May. Though a drop was anticipated, the magnitude was beyond expectations. The headline inflation indicator that gives a better idea about the possible future changes in inflation also performed positively. The headline inflation calculated with the L indicator implies that the upwards trend in inflation that started in the late 2010 has ended (Figure 1).
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Why don’t women work in Turkey?
Güven Sak, PhD
23 June 2012
Women in Turkey do not work. I think that our cities are simply not women-friendly environments. Women in Turkey just don’t work. Our country has the lowest female labor force participation rate among the OECD, including Mexico and Korea. Below 30 percent, Turkey’s female labor force participation rate is like Ireland’s in 1981. Turkey ranks lowest even among Muslim-majority countries. What is the problem? Why don’t women work in this country?
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Perhaps we should invite Greek’s youth to Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
22 June 2012
Yes, two Greeks make one German in terms of productivity. But two Turks hardly make a Greek. The world has been changing constantly. Even the meaning of what people who are now deceased had once said changed. You do not know who or what to trust anymore. Last year, we had learned that former Chinese prime minister Zhou Enlai’s remarks on the French Revolution, previously thought to have referred to the revolution of the 1789, actually referred to the student protests of 1968. It appears that his statements were lost in translation, as one who was with Kissinger during the related visit reported. I guess you know the story: Zhou Enlai was asked, “What do you think about the impact of the French Revolution and the Paris Commune?” “Too early to say,” he replied, despite the revolution had tak
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Is the post-al-Assad era important?
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
21 June 2012
Political targets which are not clarified at the beginning would break down allies as time passes. The conflicts in Syria are turning out to be a civil war. The number of questions that politicians are supposed to answer is increasing. In this regard, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu indicated a significant point, “We have to focus on the post-al-Assad era.” He is right in his explanation: Unless politicians compromise on the desired post-al-Assad period, it is impossible to manage developments in Syria.
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Is the second quarter different from the first? (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
21 June 2012
If the downturn in the index is over, is this sufficient evidence that economic recovery has started as of the second quarter? Figures suggest that first quarter’s annual growth rate will be below 2 percent. The pace of credit growth has started to rise again. At first glance, the upwards trend in credit growth as of April might give the implication that growth performance in Q2 will be different from that in Q1. But a deeper look proves this presumption wrong, for two reasons: first, we must expect a certain delay in the translation of the rise in credit growth into a recovery in industrial output via investment and consumption. Second one is about the movements in the leading indicators released by the Central Bank, which I will address on Thursday.
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How to deliver goods from Cairo to Tunisia?
Güven Sak, PhD
19 June 2012
Turkey can change its fate only by diversifying trade activities towards the east. But of course, trade diversification is not an easy task. How do you deliver goods from one city to another? You just load the goods on a truck and send them, you might say. But when cities in two different countries are concerned, the truth of the matter is different. There must be free movement of goods and vehicles between the two countries concerned. The waiting time at borders must be short. The driver must be familiar with the recipient country. The roads of the recipient county must be safe and secure. The list goes like this. Therefore, the transportation of goods is best handled in the accustomed way. In that case, the best route to transport any good from Egypt’s capitol Cairo to Tunisia’s capital
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Is the second quarter different from the first?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
19 June 2012
It would not be a surprise if Q1 growth falls below 2 percent. More importantly, figures imply that Q2 growth might not be any different, either. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter will be announced in early July. GDP growth rate was recorded at an impressive 11.9 percent in the first quarter of 2011. Than the rate decreased steadily, finally arriving at 5.2 percent in quarter four. A much lower GDP growth rate is expected for 2012 quarter one. The second quarter of the year is about to end. I evaluated the available data during preceding commentaries. Today I want to discuss what those statistics imply for GDP growth in the first half of the year.
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Unemployment resistant again
Fatih Özatay, PhD
16 June 2012
Before the global crisis, unemployment rate had stuck at 10.3 percent. Now unemployment rate stuck at a level 1 point lower. Labor force statistics for March were released yesterday. Unemployment rate was recorded at 9.9 percent while labor force participation rate and employment rate stood at 48.6 percent and 43.8 percent, respectively. Let me present statistics for the same period in 2011 so that these figures make a sense: unemployment rate was at 10.8 percent, labor force participation rate at 49.0 percent and employment rate at 43.7 percent. Below are some striking developments: At deadlock
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The revolution is good for Egypt’s grocers
Güven Sak, PhD
16 June 2012
It is thanks to the Tahrir revolutionaries that the ballot box has finally come to Egypt. I was in Cairo this week and met with many different people during my three-day stay. Let me tell you about their feelings.
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