Initial signs for the third quarter
Fatih Özatay, PhD
09 August 2012
Though it is soon to judge, first signals for the third quarter imply that growth rate will not be substantially different from the first half. Yesterday came another data reinforcing the signs that growth in second quarter will not be much different than the first. In June, industrial output picked up by 2.7 percent year-on-year. Focusing on three-month output figures in order to cast away monthly fluctuations, we see that year-on-year growth in industrial output was 2.8 percent in the first quarter and 3.4 percent in the second quarter. Growth slows down
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Proxy war and the PKK
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
09 August 2012
Nowadays, everyone is asking the reasons for the increase in outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attacks. However, if there are about 5,000 to 6,000 militants in your mountains, it should not be a surprise for you to receive news of attacks. Yet, the intensity of an increase/decrease in attacks can be still a subject of curiosity.The history of the PKK shows us that there is a direct relationship between the intensity of attacks and some variables, such as the season, the political situation in the country, internal crises in the organization and changes in the balance of regional politics. Based on changes in the balance of regional politics, this article aims to explain the reasons why the intensity of PKK attacks is rising. For many years, Turkey’s southern neighbors have b
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Stagnant growth in the second quarter?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
07 August 2012
Even though the episode of slow growth that started in the first quarter of 2011 has ended by Q1 2012, the recovery has not started yet. Last week foreign trade statistics for June was announced. For the current quarter, the developments in both exports and imports are of great importance. Since the first quarter of 2011, the economy has been growing with a decreasing pace and we are curious if this trend continues or not. And if it does, will we be faced with a stagnant growth trend or a recovery? These questions are important for estimating the overall growth in 2012. Moreover, it is critical for identifying whether unemployment that has been stuck at 9 percent for a long time will continue its inertia.
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North Korea: 5 Turkey: 0
Güven Sak, PhD
07 August 2012
Turkey is the only country among the top-twenty economies that has not won a medal at the 2012 Olympic Games. Around 10,000 athletes from 205 countries are competing in the 2012 Olympic Games in London. Turkey is among the top-twenty economies of the world. A short time ago, we were the seventeenth. Now, we rank eighteenth as Indonesia has moved up one place. And Turkey is the only country among the top twenty that has not won a medal at the Olympic Games. When I checked the list yesterday afternoon, there were 56 countries that had won one or more medals. So, when it comes to sports, Turkey is not among the top 56 of the world.
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Are we sure that inflation will be 6.5 percent?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
04 August 2012
Even if the 6.5 percent year-end target is achieved, Turkey’s CPI will be relatively higher than those in Turkey’s rivals in international markets. Inflation figures for July came as no surprise: annual consumer price inflation increased to 9.1 percent from 8.9 percent in June. This matches with the estimations of both the Central Bank and the majority of economists. An unpleasant, if not worrisome, development is that the headline inflation index (l) started to demonstrate rigidity. Average value of the indicator was 7.9 percent for the last ten months, 7.7 percent for the last five and 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent respectively in June and July. CPI higher than rivals
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Nissin foods comes to Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
04 August 2012
Nissin Food’s entry into the Turkish market is a good sign for the female labor force participation rate. Turkey’s biggest growth challenge is increasing women’s participation in the labor force. The total number of working women in Turkey is around 7 million, while we have a whopping 12 million housewives.
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Turkey is like an adolescent
Güven Sak, PhD
03 August 2012
In order to be transformative, you first have to be aware that you are different. Recently in Tunisia, a businessman said, “It gives me goose bumps when your ministers come on official visits with hundreds of business people.” He thought that it was quite disturbing that people in the same industry as his came to his country to sign deals. He was depressed to see the army of rivals marching around. Let me remind you that until recently Tunisia was a closed country, like Turkey in the 1980s. But they don’t know about the paths we have followed since then. Turkey has to develop a transformative foreign economic relations strategy for the region. This was not necessary in the 1980s, but it is today. Now it is about time for our ministers to review their strategy of taking planes full of busin
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Is the worst part over? (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
02 August 2012
For long, Germany has been opposing to ECB’s monetization for purchasing securities of troubled countries. Following the positive reaction of the market’s to European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi’s comments, I started to seek an answer to the question “is the worst part over?” During Tuesday’s commentary, I discussed the underlying reasons for the positive response. Now it’s time to discuss why there is a risk that the positive mood of the markets might be temporary.
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Between realities and dreams: the future of Syria
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
02 August 2012
The fire in Syria will extinguish with its own domestic dynamics, which will cause numerous civilian deaths. At the beginning of the week, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu told reporters that the Turkish Government wanted to see the end of the Syria crisis soon. In addition, he also mentioned a new “Syria” whose integrity is protected and whose autonomy and federation is not in question. According to explanations, Syria must never be Lebanon. Indeed, this would be a disaster not only for Syria but also for the whole region. However, we know that these issues will not continue with hopes. At this point, the question is: How realistic are the desires specified above at present?
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Will Turkey entrust cities to its villagers?
Güven Sak, PhD
31 July 2012
Yesterday, the core problem was the central government’s tutelage over the local. I’m afraid tomorrow’s problem will be tutelage of the rural over the urban. The agenda of debate in Turkey is not actually Turkey’s agenda. Abortion, caesarean section, and most recently the debate on beer drinking at universities are defective agenda items. They are defective because they don’t relate to Turkey’s future or enrichment. From this perspective, Turkey’s current agenda is sort of a distraction. You know, in the times of the street fairs in the past, some thieves used to distract people by pointing at the acrobats to steal their purses. Turkey’s current agenda is just like that. I believe that the Turkey that fails to govern its cities and change their organization and operation structure cannot b
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