Why did ASEAN not win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Güven Sak, PhD
26 October 2012
At the outset of beating the odds lies the courage to confront history. The EU has been courageous enough, ASEAN has not. The European Union (EU) won the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize. I think this bodes well. The question occupying my mind today is why ASEAN lost the Nobel Peace Prize to the EU. The EU is a union seeking to accomplish regional integration. ASEAN works for the same objective for the Asia-Pacific region. We also are going through a period in which the security focus of American documents has shifted from Europe and its surrounding region to the Asia-Pacific region. Then, why was the EU and not ASEAN awarded the Nobel Peace Prize? If you are curious why, please read on.
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Prospects for federalism in Syria and for Kurds
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
25 October 2012
The political situation in Syria is changing. Bashar al-Assad’s army maintains operational capacity, but it has lost most of northern Syria. There are two reasons for this: First, there is a vast geography defined by sporadic settlements that needs to be controlled. Second: there is a shortage of foot soldiers, and as a result al-Assad designed his strategy to focus his army on the big cities in the southeastern part of the country.As the conflict continued, different rebel groups gained de facto control of settlements in northern Syria. They need to defend this bridgehead and spread their influence. This primarily depends on popular support, without which the rebel movement cannot grow or develop.Therefore, the basic question is how to gain popular support. This is not provided
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Turkey achieved half of the EU’s GDP per capita before 2020
Güven Sak, PhD
23 October 2012
The number of SMEs operating in Turkey with EU capital has increased from 4,000 in 2003 to 15,000. Turkey’s per capita GDP has reached 50% of the EU-27 average. Please don’t tell me that the EU has accepted new members who have pulled the average down, or that a global crisis has occurred. In the final analysis, we have achieved 50% of the EU average. In 1995 when Turkey joined the Customs Union with the EU, its per capita GDP was 30% of the EU average. Back then, reaching 50% was a distant possibility. But today it has happened. Now Turkey can act more confidently about the EU membership target. If you ask me, if it wasn’t for the EU membership negotiations, Turkey couldn’t have achieved 50% of the EU’s average GDP per capita in such a short time. Let me give proof of this first.
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The next big debate in Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
20 October 2012
Turkey’s economy and public life today is deprived of the skills and creativity of half of its population. Turkish women do not get jobs. Turkey is the only OECD country where the female labor force participation rate is lower than 30 percent. Even female Turkish “guest workers” to Germany are working less than their fellow female migrants to that country. There seems to be a strong cultural element here. Is there a solution on the horizon? The result of the next big debate over women in Turkey may bring some answers. This time, the struggle will be among conservative movements, and will certainly have far-reaching consequences.
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You should not rent a car in India
Güven Sak, PhD
19 October 2012
Turkey is a country where you can rent a car; India is not. But there are interesting similarities between the two countries. There are two types of countries in the world: those where you prefer to rent a car to travel around during a short visit and those where you wouldn’t even consider doing so. Turkey is in the first group, India is definitely in the second. If you ask me, no one should rent a car in India. Let me tell you why.
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The cost of the Central Bank’s new policy (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
18 October 2012
The share of FX liabilities in the Central Bank’s total debt rose from 44 to 67 percent. On Tuesday, I addressed the positive aspects of the Central Bank’s (CB) new policy that allowed banks to keep a certain proportion of reserve requirements on lira deposits in FX. Today let me talk about the downsides of the policy.
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Syria and Turkey’s exit strategy
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
18 October 2012
The best exit strategy for Turkey is to hope for the creation of a negotiation table in Syria. In Syria, as the number of dead and refugees increases, endless political and military debates ensue. Unless an important development ends this state of affairs, tragedies and controversies are likely to continue for a long time to come.
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Turkey has to put on the brakes because of its disorganized urban transformation
Güven Sak, PhD
16 October 2012
In Turkey, as spending on housing contributes more to the GDP, the domestic savings rate decreases. Turkey is not like China. When it achieves high growth rates like China, it has to slow down to cool the engine now and then. After a couple of years of high growth, Turkey has to slow down and take a deep breath. Why? Because Turkey’s savings rate is almost one-fourth that of China’s. Turkey used to compare better in the past.
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The cost of the Central Bank’s new policy (1)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
16 October 2012
Banks are now allowed to keep a certain proportion of required reserves for lira deposits in FX. Quite a while ago the Central Bank (CB) introduced a new monetary policy tool. The tool has two pillars: first, banks are now allowed to keep a certain proportion of required reserves in FX. This proportion was zero, but after the new policy it was raised to 10 percent as of 12 September 2011.
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Has the income gap narrowed down?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
13 October 2012
Since 1960, GDP per capita gap between G7 countries and Turkey has not changed much. As you might remember, in one of last week’s commentaries, I criticized a figure used in recent remarks of Central Bank officials. The figure compared per capita income in Turkey to those in South Korea in the US. Without repeating the criticisms I raised, I will try to make a more proper comparison as I did several times before on this column. Apart from my criticisms for the Central Bank’s comparisons, I want to update the figure for two reasons. First, it is a vitally important comparison an second, I believe it will be useful for new readers (on the assumption that I have new readers, of course).
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