A rising tide lifts all boats in Egypt
Güven Sak, PhD
24 November 2012
Egypt can be an important regional actor only if it has a stronger economy. Egypt has returned to regional leadership. The country played a vital role in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinians in Gaza, ending the week-long violence. It also recently reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF for the eagerly awaited 4.8 billion dollar deal. On the domestic front, President Mohamed Morsi has further immunized himself and the Constituent Assembly, together with the Shura Council, against all court actions. All this happened in less than a week.
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Switzerland is a shop on the main street
Güven Sak, PhD
23 November 2012
Switzerland gives and takes back the highest rate of brain drain in the world. There are two types of countries in the world: those on the main street and those on a blind alley. Switzerland is in the first group and Turkey is somewhere in between. If you own a shop on the main street, you enjoy street traffic and high business volume. If you design an eye-catching display you can attract many window shoppers, some of whom may go into the shop and possibly buy something. It is a good thing to have a shop on the main street. And just like a shop on the main street, Switzerland is very attractive to international scientists. According to a study in 2011, 57 percent of the researchers working in Switzerland in the field of chemistry, biology, and material science were not born in Switzerland.
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Lessons Turkey can take from Japan
Fatih Özatay, PhD
22 November 2012
With its production structure driven by external demand, the output of the automotive sector decreased inevitably. Japan’s exports in the first ten months of the year decreased by 2.3 percent compared to the same period in 2011. Experts raised two main reasons: first was the relative drop in Europe’s import demand due to the challenging economic circumstances. Second was the relative slowdown in China’s growth as well as the escalating tension between Japan and China. In October, Japan’s exports to the Eurozone and to China decreased by 20.1 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively.
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Israel’s Gaza operation and the PKK problem
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
22 November 2012
Öcalan’s role was downplayed by the Turkish media, which is busying itself with a less risky subject: Israel’s Gaza operation. This is not a piece about the effects of Israel’s counter-insurgency experiences on Turkey’s strategies regarding the struggle against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Nevertheless, this is not to say that the Gaza operation does not come in handy for the Turkish government in its efforts to manage the PKK problem.
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Turkey cannot prosper by exporting rebar
Güven Sak, PhD
20 November 2012
The shares of high-technology exports in total exports are 20 percent in Korea and 3 percent in Turkey. Turkey has been a middle-income country ever since I am able to remember. South Korea used to be one, too, but it upgraded to the league of high-income countries by the end of the last century. We have maintained our position in the lower league. Why? If you ask me, the quality of the high-growth star sectors is critical here. The iron-steel sector seems to be the star of Turkey’s economy, with rapidly growing exports and a relative rise in its share in world trade. Yet, I believe that Turkey cannot prosper by selling rebar to the world.
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The pursuit of transparency (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
20 November 2012
Yes, the Central Bank of Turkey has multiple objectives. Does it have any list of priorities? Do circumstances affect the priorities? The high current account deficit financed predominantly with short-term borrowings threatened Turkey’s financial stability. Counter measures eased the current account deficit to a certain extent. Yes, even the possibility of having the current level of current account deficit would give us the shivers in 2007 or 2005. But measures enabled a drop in the deficit, anyways. The level of current account deficit today is lower than what it was in 2011.
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The powerful Turkey of the future and children in poverty
Ozan Acar
17 November 2012
Turkey has a demographic opportunity window that has been enjoyed by only a few countries. The number of primary-school age children in the country is higher than the entire population of many European countries. Yet, current trends suggest that Turkey’s population will age rapidly in the period ahead. The only way to prevent the ageing of the population is to increase fertility rates. With this perspective, the argument that the fertility rate must be increased from 2 to 3 children per family makes sense. This doubtless is a mathematical fact.
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Would Turkey get the rating upgrade anyway?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
17 November 2012
If unemployment rate were 10 or 10.5 percent today, would Fitch still upgrade Turkey to the investment level? Many developed countries have still been fighting with the consequences of the financial crisis. There is no doubt that chief among this is the hike in unemployment. IMF recently released the latest estimates for unemployment rate in 2012 in developed countries.
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The untold story of Turkey’s soft landing
Güven Sak, PhD
17 November 2012
The contribution of domestic demand to growth has declined to 10 percent, from above 50 percent. I was recently talking to business people interested in green field investments. Turkey is a land of opportunities for the foreign real estate sector. However, although the medium-term perspective is always bright here, the short term makes people think twice. Let me briefly go over Turkey’s growth experience of the last four years and its prospects for 2013.
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Why was he not using the sidewalk, you say?
Güven Sak, PhD
16 November 2012
Ankara will not become a developed city just because the municipality hangs advertisements on billboards everywhere claiming that it is indeed a developed city.
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