Turkey’s Syria bargain with Russia
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
06 December 2012
It is very difficult to provide a complete analysis of Turkey’s relations with Russia. Numerous contradictory factors shape these relations. Interestingly, as interests broaden and deepen, contradictions intensify. Hence, the difficulty in understanding which factor has currently gained priority and which has become strategically more determining.We can look at some prominent aspects of Turkey-Russia relations. First of all, there is an attractive area of interdependency which is becoming more influential in various fields like economy, the nuclear plant issue, energy, trade and tourism. This interdependency is currently worth $35 billion and it is expected to reach the $100 billion threshold. In other words, we should expect the interdependency to increase. The second aspect is
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Turkish cities are not fond of persons with disabilities
Güven Sak, PhD
04 December 2012
Turkey’s urban governors are not aware that a person who rides a bike worth 100 liras has the same rights as a person who drives a car worth 100,000 liras. Ankara was not designed taking people with disabilities into account. Or, more correctly, the possibility that people with disabilities might participate in work life was not considered when the city was planned. Let me take that one more step: the urbanization tradition of Turkey does not involve any concern as such. This is bad. Today 650 million people with disabilities live throughout the world, about 10 percent of the world’s population. The share of disabled people among the poor population is even higher, about 20 percent, as experts state. Being disabled is an impediment to finding a job. Yesterday was the International Day of P
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Was it the required reserve ratio or another instrument?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
04 December 2012
Credit growth rate diminished substantially in the fourth quarter, when required reserve ratio was lowered on two different interventions. It is highlighted on all occasions that the Central Bank’s (CBT) interventions to reduce the credit growth rate brought the desired outcomes. Each and every CBT report states that reserve requirement for lira loans were increased starting with October 2010 in order to reduce the credit growth rate. The latest action to increase reserve requirement ratio was in April 2011. Starting with August 2011, international risk appetite weakened due to adverse developments in Europe. After this date the CB stopped increasing the requirements but decreased requirement ratios twice on October 6 and 27 instead.
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Why is Mohamed Morsi governing badly?
Güven Sak, PhD
01 December 2012
Egypt definitely needs a decentralization strategy. Municipalities are good areas for opposition groups to come of age. Egypt’s president is acting like a business executive who is overly anxious to close a deal. Little remains of the presidential post-revolutionary figure, elected with 50 percent of the vote. Morsi’s transformation is largely due to his decision to make himself, the Constituent Assembly and the Shura Council immune to the judiciary, and he has now decided to push ahead with the constitutional referendum in a haphazard way.
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Turkey cannot even sweep CERN’s floors
Güven Sak, PhD
30 November 2012
Turkey has chosen to select between companies and persons. With this mentality, it cannot even sweep CERN’s floors. I used to think that it was important only to diplomats, but the discussions about CERN membership have expanded my horizon. I now think that Turkey’s public officials should learn more about Turkey, visit the Organized Industrial Zones in Manisa and Bursa, take a walk in the Gebze Technopark, and have a lunch in these places when they first assume office.
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Getting a clear signal in all the noise
Fatih Özatay, PhD
29 November 2012
Abundance of data sometimes causes a lot of “noise.” And it is a difficult task to get a clear signal in the noise.
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Kurds, Arabs and Turks
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
29 November 2012
It will be no surprise if Turkey ends up being the most confused actor in such a scenario in which Kurds and Turkmens, half of them Shiite, will be facing Sunni Arabs and Shiite Arabs. The United States left many problems behind when it withdrew from Iraq. Leaving the disputed territory of Kirkuk to Iraqis was especially problematic. Since the withdrawal, the country has been facing serious challenges.
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The pursuit of transparency (4)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
27 November 2012
We don’t know the CBT’s estimations of credit growth rate under different scenarios on external conditions. Inflation reports are among the key communication tools of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT). Here is a quote from the second one for 2012: “Having achieved the desired outcomes with respect to alleviating macro financial risks, monetary policy has focused on maintaining price stability as of October 2011” (page 3).
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What does a physicist do in Turkey?
Güven Sak, PhD
27 November 2012
Unless Turkey advances from a medium-technology to a high-technology economy, achieving the 2023 targets will remain a sweet dream. According to the Turkish Atomic Energy Authority, for Turkey to become a member of the European Organization of Nuclear Research (CERN) would mean paying a full membership fee for nothing. A review appeared in Radikal the other day. My favorite part went, “It doesn’t seem possible for Turkish companies to succeed in CERN auctions. The only potential sectors Turkey can succeed in are services such as cleaning and catering." Why? The review explains: “Turkey’s human resources in the field of particle physics cannot compete with those of other CERN member countries.” Then, the review says Turkey should not take any step to become a full member of CERN until it b
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The pursuit of transparency (3)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
24 November 2012
The CBT can fulfill the authorities granted by the relevant law more easily if it helps economic actors shape healthy inflation and interest rate expectations. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) no longer has a single objective. For instance, the CBT Governor Erdem Başçı said the other day that the Bank will intervene if the real value of the lira (that is the real exchange rate) reaches a certain level. The CBT has stressed several times that they aimed the credit growth rate at a level around 15 percent. Moreover, the CBT introduced a series of measures between the late 2010 and August 2011 in order to lower the current account deficit, explicitly stating this objective. From time to time, the Bank declared that it may change its policy stance due to concerns related to growth performance.
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