The TEPAV Financial Stress Index (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
30 April 2013
The TEPAV Financial Stress Index was designed to predicate the risk of economic contraction before GDP figures are released. Last week I talked about a new index TEPAV developed. The TEPAV Financial Stress Index aims to predicate the risk of economic contraction before GDP figures are released. The Index cannot foresee each and every incidence of economic contraction, though. It is indicative of the risk of contraction on the basis of financial factors.
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The problem with Cyprus is that it takes Turkey as its role model
Güven Sak, PhD
30 April 2013
In Northern Cyprus, the public budget mainly means taking financial aid from Turkey and distributing it to Turkish Cypriots. The Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus is still divided in two. There are separate elections and governments in the south and in the north. Every public service is organized by two different administrations in each. Recently in Bosnia and Herzegovina, I was surprised when I saw that each ethnic group uses different buses. I guess the Cypriot case escaped my mind then. Ethnic clashes lead to such nonsense. Once the clash begins, wisdom leaves the room. Cyprus has Turkish Cypriots in the north and Greek Cypriots in the south. These two groups with their own hands destroyed the joint state they once had established together. The Greek Cypriots still pretend that the
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US debt ceiling
Fatih Özatay, PhD
27 April 2013
It is estimated that the Treasury will need a new raise in the limit by 19 May 2013, which means that the Republican and Democratic parties will have to reconcile once again. Soon a well-known problem will come back to the fore. The acquaintance dates back to 2011 when the entire world first mingled with the US Treasury’s debt ceiling issue. The US has legislative restrictions on debt since 1917. The ceiling was raised seventy times since then. In 2 August 2011, it was realized that the Treasury’s debt will hit the ceiling. This was a problem not only for the US Treasury: the head trauma was expected to affect the entire world. The ceiling, if not raised, would hinder budget payments, especially pensions, social security allowances and interest on borrowing. The US economy would in a sense
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Turkey is still an introverted country
Güven Sak, PhD
26 April 2013
The success stories of Turkey’s fast growth companies must be heard by the world. Turkey is still an introverted country. From an objective point of view, I think that Turkey looks like an introverted adolescent. Think about it: The people of Turkey learned that opening up to the world brings prosperity in the 1980s. Export figures have grown rapidly since then. Turkey was a sleepy agricultural country before the 1980s. It has now become a dynamic, mid-tech industrial country. But I don’t think that Turkey is open enough. This is partly because we overestimate ourselves and our problems. Since we always get above ourselves, we are not able to empathize with the world's problems. We do not care if the world burns to the ground.
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April capacity utilization and confidence figures are not pleasing
Fatih Özatay, PhD
25 April 2013
In April, CUR decreased year-on-year by 1.5 percent, that is, at a rate larger than in February and March. Yesterday two important data which are indicative of growth performance were released. 2012 growth was remarkably weak, at 2.2 percent. Growth rates decreased quarter on quarter throughout the year. The fourth quarter had the weakest growth figure. Given the 2013 growth target of 4 percent and the slight increase in unemployment, the billion dollar question in everyone’s mind is whether or not recovery has begun.
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New opportunity spaces for the PKK as a ‘united operation force’
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
25 April 2013
The negotiations between the government and outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan are continuing. The government has two particular concerns; the first regards the reaction of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while the second regards the powerful signs that negotiations with Öcalan will complicate the problem in the medium term.In recent weeks, the MHP demonstrated that it has the capacity to mobilize masses and put the government in a difficult position. In other words, it seems that the power of the street made the prime minister very angry.Another concern of the government is that the Öcalan-based strategy of “managing the process with one man” could be interrupted and that the process will have unintended, medium-term consequences. Erdoğan is wor
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The TEPAV Financial Stress Index
Fatih Özatay, PhD
23 April 2013
The TEPAV Financial Stress Index foresees the possibility of economic contraction in a given quarter two to three months ahead. GDP figures are released with a delay. Growth figure for the first quarter of 2013 will be released in mid-June. Changes in the level of economic activity are of importance for everyone. In all market economies, growth rates show a fluctuating outlook. GDP growth fluctuates in quite a smooth pattern with upward movements for four to five quarters followed by a movement in the opposite direction. For instance, Turkey’s annual GDP growth decreased constantly between the first quarter of 2011 and the last quarter of 2012. GDP growth is expected to pick up starting with the first quarter of 2013.
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Bathroom graffiti has started to vanish since Twitter and Facebook
Güven Sak, PhD
23 April 2013
With social media, graffiti and writings on public toilet walls and stalls have become rare. A friend whose ideas I respect asked me this the other day: Have you noticed that with social media, graffiti and writings on public toilet walls and stalls have become rare? I am not sure to what degree this is related to social media per se. I am not arguing that toilet graffiti has gone extinct. Thanks to social media, however, there is a new dynamic that tears down the oppressive climate expressed with toilet graffiti. People now have a new channel where they can voice their reaction against oppression. Turkey is among the top ten countries in terms of number of Twitter and Facebook accounts. We must start thinking about the potential outcomes. Technological change is the strongest tool for de
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It’s refreshing to see paintings from Gaza
Güven Sak, PhD
20 April 2013
I have walked many times through the Erez crossing at the northern end of the Gaza Strip. Not once did it make me think of art. The dusty no man’s land between the Israeli and two Palestinian checkpoints, one for the Palestinian National Authority and the other for Hamas, never made me think about the painters of Gaza. My mistake. I should have seen the paintings of Palestinian artists years ago. Alas, I made it last week, at the Palestine Development and Investment Corporation’s (PADICO) headquarters in Ramallah. I should have guessed that there was more to come when, entering the premises, I saw a painting of Mahmoud Darwish, the poet of the Palestinian resistance. On the walls of the meeting room I saw a number of vivid abstract paintings from Gaza and an astonishing portrait
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Microsoft Excel is to blame for the world’s misery!
Güven Sak, PhD
19 April 2013
Economists should take sides in discussions on the basis of their research conclusions, and not do research in line with their political stance. The global economic crisis of 2008 is dragging on. It burst forth in the US, at the heart of our civilization. The US economy is still in intensive care. Europe has not even made it to the post-op phase yet. It has been years, but the world is not yet sure how to respond to the crisis. There is a deep-rooted dissidence. It was first between economists, now it is between politicians. On the one hand are those who think austerity measures can lift the US from the crisis (the Republican Party). On the other hand are those who believe increased public spending is the way out (the Democratic Party). Both camps have their economists. The debate has not
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