FED: Then and now (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
04 June 2013
The expectation that the FED will aggressively increase interest rates before the anticipated timeframe dampened the risk appetite towards Turkey and countries alike.
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FED: Then and now (1)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
01 June 2013
If the FED does “now” what it did “then” (in terms of direction and magnitude) what would be the consequences for Turkey? In the last couple of weeks Turkey’s interest and exchange rates have increased, due to the expectation that the US Federal Reserve, the FED, will start withdrawing the liquidity generously injected since the beginning of the global crisis and raising the short term policy rate recently around 0-0.25 percent. Benchmark bond rate that was as low as 4.7 percent recently, reached slightly above 6 percent by noon yesterday. Since the beginning of May, the lira value of the Euro-Dollar basket increased by 3.5 percent. What’s going on?
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Two roads diverged in Arab transformations
Güven Sak, PhD
01 June 2013
I remembered the famous Robert Frost poem “The Road Not Taken” while listening to M. Marzouki in Ankara the other day. The poem reads, “Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--/ I took the one less travelled by / And that has made all the difference.” It is the difference between Spring and Fall when it comes to Arab transformations. Marzouki noted that the Arab Spring could still turn to Arab Fall in Ankara. So two roads diverged, not in a yellow wood, but in the Arab transformations. That is the base line of what is happening in our neighborhood nowadays. One road is well trodden; the other has not ever been taken before. Not ever taken before in the Arab world, I dare say. It is sectarianization or democratization, one based on religion the other on secular values. One is about div
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New York is 10 times better than Istanbul
Güven Sak, PhD
31 May 2013
In these times where quality is becoming more important than quantity, walkable cities rich with parks and restaurants are integral parts of the industrial policy. New York has 4500 parks; Istanbul has 428. I am darn sure that Istanbul beats New York in terms of number of contractors, but the picture is the exact opposite with parks. The New York City Government (NYCG) is the counterpart of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). To take care of urban parks and gardens is among the responsibilities of each. Reading the working reports of the two is a very instructive. Lately, Ozan Acar of TEPAV has been studying the two. Today let me share with you some of the figures he has complied and then state some observations. First, the score at the headline: The number of parks and gardens
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Syria and the regional sectarian war
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
30 May 2013
The more active stance taken by Hezbollah and Iran in the Syrian civil war made the Turkish government angry and triggered a series of reckless sect-oriented statements. Both at the beginning of and during the conflict, the government declared that theirs was not a Sunni perspective, they did not want a sectarian war in the region and they will never be a part of such a war. But as the civil war continues and the regional polarization deepens, the sectarian preferences and attitudes became more visible.Bashar al-Assad’s consolidation of power before the Geneva conference and the slow pace of the responses from the U.S. and other Western governments are getting on the Turkish government’s nerves. Lacking initiative, the government is reacting ideologically and emotionally. Hezbolla
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Forty-two percent of the population do not have bank accounts
Güven Sak, PhD
28 May 2013
Middle class implies stability. Not in the sense of creating it, but registering it. I think there are two types of persons: those who have bank accounts and those who don’t. In Turkey, 42 percent of the population at or above 15 years of age are do not have bank accounts. If banks are easy targets in a given country, one reason is that not many people are engaged with banks. The rate in Turkey is on the rise, however. Those who take a swipe at banks without thinking had better be more cautious. By the way, Islamic instruments of banking are not involved in the calculation.
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Consumption on the rise, investments stagnant
Fatih Özatay, PhD
28 May 2013
In the light of the information available, 4 percent growth in 2013 is still achievable. Lately I have addressed the vulnerabilities facing Turkey’s economy and consequent risks. I will stick to this issue for some time more. But today I want to switch back to the current news as important data was released.
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It’s not too late
Fatih Özatay, PhD
25 May 2013
Despite all the praise and credit, no country is immune to crises. This is a critical lesson to learn. Do you remember the well-known economic crisis in Mexico, also known as the Tequila crisis? It was unveiled gradually in the second half of 1994. In December, the government declared a devaluation of the peso by 15 percent, which was followed by the crisis. In March 1995, the dollar/peso exchange rate was doubled. Of course, the story is not that simple; but this is not the concern of this commentary. If you are wondering why I have raised this two-decade old crisis, let me put a reminder here: a month before the crisis erupted, the US press had featured op-eds and commentaries about how bright the economists of Mexican economic management were and how the country had done economic miracl
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Get your Turkish visa online immediately
Güven Sak, PhD
25 May 2013
Every year, more than 30 million tourists visit Turkey, making it the sixth largest tourist destination in the world (excluding the United States and China) and the fourth largest in Europe. This trend started in the early 1980s with late President Turgut Özal’s tourism drive. Only in 2013 did the Foreign Ministry decide to contribute. Better late than never. The ministry recently opened an online electronic visa (e-visa) facility at which it takes about three minutes to apply and get an e-visa. No more visits to the Turkish consulate. No more paper trail. No more waiting at the airport. Just a few clicks and keystrokes and you have an e-visa!Among the 30 million tourists to enter the country every year, a third are required to have visas. The objective is to turn all visas into
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Let’s hope for the best
Fatih Özatay, PhD
23 May 2013
Turkey will be transferring abroad some portion of its savings, which are already remarkably low. Let’s hope for the best! A storyline we frequently hear nowadays: “In developed countries interest rates are radically low. Emerging market economies also have joined them lately. Therefore, it is but natural that interest rates are in decline in Turkey. Alike, interest rate falling below inflation is not a problem.”
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