Are we the control group of an experiment?
Güven Sak, PhD
10 January 2009
Turkish government has been monitoring the financial crisis that has been blatantly arriving here in Turkey as long for almost one and a half years without taking any precautionary measures. Observing such contentment, one cannot stop thinking that the government has an intention. Recently, a friend of mine said "I am afraid that Turkey might be the control group." Why not? Maybe, Turkey is the control group of the experiment conducted to understand the measures required to tackle the crisis. Can this be possible? Let us see.
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‘What shall we do’ part for the IMF
Fatih Özatay, PhD
08 January 2009
Oh Dear, what will happen now? Just yesterday, I was making fun of various expressions of 'I told you so'. However, "I told you so". I swear I did. And what is more, not only I told you so; we told you so...
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Central Bank shall reconnect with the reality as soon as possible
Güven Sak, PhD
08 January 2009
The world has changed. This was what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Director of Fiscal Affairs Department Carlo Cottarelli were mentioning in the joint statement they delivered recently, "What kind of an expansionary fiscal policy do we need?" If you wish, you can find the transcript of the statement in English in the IMF web site or in Turkish in the TEPAV web site. As the world is changing, everyone is trying to adjust, including the IMF. Only the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is still living in yesterday's world. However, it is crucial for the Central Bank to reconnect with the reality. If you are wondering why, please go on reading.
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Favorable indicators of yesterday do not give good news anymore
Güven Sak, PhD
06 January 2009
2009 will be year different from those we are used to. Before 2009, it was easier to understand which was a right step and which was a wrong step. The economy was operating within the framework we are familiar with. This year, however, things are different. The changes in indicators, which we would deem as favorable in the past, do not point a favorable state of affairs now. Therefore, confusion is inevitable. We are in a period where we have to look back on the things we know. The economy is shifting from one phase to another and in the meanwhile, main problem of the economy is changing. Set of concepts and indicators valid back then do not mean anything today. Let us see towards what direction the binding constraints of yesterday move and what does this mean for the economy.
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Bubbling bubbles
Fatih Özatay, PhD
05 January 2009
Since the bubble that emerged in the housing market of the US has burst, we are covered by 'tiny bubbles' all around. Everyone keeps saying "bubble is growing in Turkey", "keep out; the bubble will burst", "this is the result of 'false monetary policies'" and so on...
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Unusual certainty
Fatih Özatay, PhD
01 January 2009
It is a custom that - though I do not know whether it is so, or if it is, why it is so - calculations are made on the eve of the New Year; what was said about the year left and to what extent they were realized and so on. On the last day of 2008, the day I wrote this column, I skimmed over old columns with a bit of hesitation; because, throughout the year I have asked questions meaning 'Who has the control' and criticized the ongoing inertia. Yes, but what did I say throughout the year? What if one says: "You keep on criticizing, but, what about you?"
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2009 will be the year of easy decisions for the economy
Güven Sak, PhD
01 January 2009
Happy New Year! I wish that 2009 brings richness and happiness for everyone living on this beautiful blue planet. In fact, a year in which we will need patience the most has come; not only for the residents of this country, but for everyone living on this planet. Our destinies have never been this interlocked before. We have never encountered such synchronized disasters. For the first time, the world is starting a year with common grieves and concerns. This is as well valid for Turkey. Then, what shall we expect from the year 2009? 2009 will be the year of easy decisions for the economy. Do not get me wrong, naturally hard decisions will also be made. This year will be a hard one for the Turkish economy. However, those hard decisions will be made easily without constantly postponing the is
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‘If you are in debt, you are in trouble’ period begins for the corporate sector
Güven Sak, PhD
30 December 2008
Honorable businessman Mr. Tuncay Özilhan said "Ankara residents do not feel what goes on in Anatolia". He was right. The subject was on the headlines of this daily yesterday. Today let me examine the problems the corporate sector encounters in daily life. The topic is 'if you are in debt, you are in trouble'.
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Who helped Bernard Madoff?
Güven Sak, PhD
27 December 2008
Bernard Madoff shock in the capital markets take place on December 11, 2008. According to the statement of the website of Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC), Mr. Madoff, founder of Bernard L. Madoff Securities Investment and board of executors of the company for 48 years, was arrested. The cause of investigation was the statements Madoff made to his sons, who are senior executives in the company. Our successful businessman said his fellow colleagues: "What we are doing is nothing but fraud; you can only call this Ponzi financing". And the fellow colleagues, without wasting time, reported their father/boss to the SEC.
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What does ‘no money circulation in the market’ mean?
Güven Sak, PhD
25 December 2008
Last Tuesday we said "Let go the empty talks and see what we should do." In this context, we first focused on the corporate sector. It seems that the current conditions will first affect the corporate sector regardless of what we want. Until today, we in a polite and technical manner said "It is critical to prevent any obstruction in the credit channel"; but no one understood anything. Therefore, today it is time to explain what is going to happen concretely. Do you remember the first example? The question we asked was quite simple: What happens if banks tell companies 'The collateral you supplied for the credit you received is not sufficient anymore. Either supply additional collateral or return the part of the credit not covered by the collateral'? The answer was that bad things happened
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