Interesting developments
Fatih Özatay, PhD
06 May 2010
The global financial system is facing a tough challenge. On Tuesday significant drops were seen both in European and US stock exchanges. It is doubtless that such sharp movements were also observed in the near past, so remaining calm might be a good thing to do. However a rumor about Spain is addressed as one of the reasons behind the fall in stock exchanged. Web pages are occupied by numerous scenarios pertaining to the budget deficits, debt repayments over the years ahead for Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy and the European countries which hold the Treasury bills issued by these countries. And we should note that his happened despite the announcement of a bailout plan for Greece.
[More]
Can a bailout plan be based on market interest rate?
Güven Sak, PhD
04 May 2010
No it cannot. The ratio of domestic debt stock to Greece's GDP is around 120 percent. The public has learned that the budget deficit, which will intensify the domestic debt stock, was not 6 but 14 percent recently when Papandreu administration came to power. Now, to issues shall be highlighted. First question to ask is as to why Greece is the problem of foreigners. Second question is closely related with the first one. Shall the support to Greece be provided at a rate close to market interest rates as precious consultants of German's President insists? The answers to these questions will set forth clearly the problems we are facing.
[More]
The two crises and confidence
Fatih Özatay, PhD
03 May 2010
I will continue 'the story of two crises' series. My target is to draw some prospective lessons. The lessons to drag will be shaped on the basis of the answers to these fundamental questions: What are Turkey's main vulnerabilities in the second decade of the 21st century? What can we do to overcome these?
[More]
Is it contagious?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
02 May 2010
We first became the expert of the US economy, and now Greek economy. We cannot stop writing a commentary on the state of affairs in Greece occasionally. The last commentary was also on Greece, but I am willing to add another one to the list. This time I want to focus on the dimensions of the Greece case that frightens Turkey as well. The question is; will the crisis in Greece transmit to EU member countries and Turkey?
[More]
Again on the problems of the neighbor...
Fatih Özatay, PhD
29 April 2010
Almost a month ago favorable news on Greece spread around. Also at this column I wrote a commentary with the title 'Greece will take a deep breath, but will not be in peace'. Nonetheless, intrigues did not end preventing Greece to take a deep breath. The point we arrived is quite worrisome.
[More]
Sunday Times Rich List breaks the recovery record
Güven Sak, PhD
27 April 2010
The Sunday Times daily of Britain announces a Rich List every year since 1989. The list gives the ranking of the richest 1000 people living in Britain. Rich List 2010 was announced last weekend. According to this, collective wealth of the richest 1000 increased by 29.9 percent from 2009 to 2010. This is the biggest annual rise in the list since the first year of its publication. Those monitoring the indicators to figure out the momentum of the recovery process; please note that things go well in the rich's side. This is always the case, is not it?
[More]
Export structure and global crisis
Fatih Özatay, PhD
25 April 2010
One of the main reasons for the contractionary effects of the global crisis in 2009 was the fall in the demand for Turkey's exports. Steep reductions in Turkey's exports are unique to the global crisis; no such thing was experienced in the 2001 crisis. The recent change in export structure of Turkey also has a role in this.
[More]
From Glass-Steagal to 'Volcker Rule’: What about the financial reform discussions?
Güven Sak, PhD
24 April 2010
Agenda of the US is occupied once again with reform discussions. We are talking about comprehensive and well designed radical and systemic steps; not deceiving political steps. They have completed the health reform and how it is time to deal with the financial sector reform. It is correct that this issue was not much featured here in Turkey. In fact even the financial sector officials in the USA might be stealing a glance at the discussions not paying much attention and waiting for the talks to get serious. But I believe that we should as well start glancing at the discussions and developments already. Today let us put the issue on a framework; we can discuss the details next week. Let us see what President Obama tries to do on the way toward by-elections. This by-election issue seems to
[More]
Do export markets of Turkey diversify?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
22 April 2010
On Monday at this column I reached the conclusion that export movements during the 2001 crisis and the global crisis were quite different. In the 2001 crisis real exports of goods and services did not fall down. However, exports, which recently started to recover, dropped significantly following the burst of the global crisis. I should also remind that despite the mentioned recovery export volume still remains below the peak level before the crisis.
[More]
80 percent of Chambers says yes to the Prime Minister
Güven Sak, PhD
20 April 2010
Last Thursday I have watched the entire meeting of Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) with executive branches of chambers and commodity exchanges. To be honest, the impression I got was quite different from what the newspaper captions implied. 80 percent of the chambers said yes to the suggestion of H.E. Prime Minister of Turkey. But let us analyze what exactly those 'yes's imply.
[More]
