On Israeli-PKK relations - I
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
15 September 2011
Tension between Turkey and Israel is continuing with conflicting interpretations of events, as well as doses of verbal warfare. It is remarkable that the debate is so structured as to provoke sensitivities and deepen fears on both sides. While the source of traditional fears and anxieties in Israel is the Palestinian question, Turkey's source of anxiety is the Armenian question and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. Although Turkey's approach toward the Palestinian question is well-known, the Israeli-PKK relationship is not so. This article aims to contribute to the ongoing debate by focusing on Israeli-PKK relations.
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Growth rate: Heads to where?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
13 September 2011
Growth performance was not surprising. Then, the "overheating" debates were intensified and the European crisis was yet to escalate. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter was announced yesterday. Turkish GDP increased by 8.8 percent year on year. Moreover, growth rate for 2010 was revised up from 8.9 to 9 percent and that for the 2011 quarter from 11 to 11.6 percent.
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Have any step been taken?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
10 September 2011
Industrial production seems to have left behind the trough. The answer to the question to which extent the economy has overcome the trough is "so so". Yesterday industrial production figures for July were announced. Seasonally adjusted level of production which had been decreasing month-on-month since February increased by 2.7 percent in July. This contradicts to the recent discourse that the economy has slowed down in the last couple of months. Of course no definite conclusion can be reached relying solely on the figures for a few months. But in the end, we are witnessing a considerable increase in the monthly industrial production.
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Sending non-Muslims away was a bad idea
Güven Sak, PhD
10 September 2011
Regional disparity is an important issue in Turkey. Take for example, the top 1,000 industrial companies list of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO-1000). Have you ever looked at the geographical location of the companies in the list? Let me tell you: There are no factories in the east of Turkey. Let me correct: If you look for provinces with at least three companies on the ISO-1000 list, then the whole east of Turkey looks empty. It is sad.
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Political stability does not guarantee policy stability
Güven Sak, PhD
09 September 2011
Second generation reforms are closely connected to how business is done and are associated with the structure of the public administration. Can Turkey become the tenth biggest economy in the world? Of course, if we can stay focused on this target and decide on our priorities. Since the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) granted the government the authority to issue decrees with the aim of restructuring public services, I have been expecting a statement that reads like this: "The following are our priorities to make Turkey the tenth biggest economy in the world: (First Hundred Days Priority List). In order to handle these priorities as soon as possible, we have to concentrate the public administration as a single target. The first two hundred days of the program are of critical importan
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Does the CBT aim to gradually weaken the interest rate tool?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
08 September 2011
The new monetary policy makes me question whether the CBT is aiming to gradually weaken the short-term interest rate tool. From 2002 to the late 2008, when the global economic crisis intensified, the main policy tool of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) was short-term interest rate. Before 2008, the banking system had a fund surplus and thus the short-term interest rate applied for the CBT's overnight borrowing from banks. After the global crisis, the CBT activated different tools in order to relieve the banking system and secure that interbank transactions continue.
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Guidelines for beginners to understanding civil-military relations in Turkey: Part IV
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
08 September 2011
Today I will focus on how the developments mentioned in the previous analysis affect the Turkish Armed Forces, or TSK. Understandably, the AKP government and its allies claim that they want civil-military relations to suit the Zeitgeist. To what extent the means used to achieve the targeted ends are appropriate remains an unanswered question.
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In whose shoes I would never like to be?
Güven Sak, PhD
06 September 2011
The fact that the number of persons in whose shoes no one would like to be is increasing implies that we are in a process of deep transformation. Nowadays, I do not know the answer. Before, I would have taken a look around to answer this question. Actually, this is a good method to find subjects to write about. In fact, it is a perfect way to avoid the domestic issues in the current milieu of "advanced democracy." But for some time now, I have been unable to decide the winner on my monthly short-list. Nowadays I make a "persons in whose shoes I would not like to be" list. Can you see what this means for Turkey? Nowadays all of us must avoid thinking through, "What will happen next? What trouble will we face?" I believe that Turkey is going through a process in which its room for maneuver -
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Inflation and credit supply
Fatih Özatay, PhD
06 September 2011
During 2011, the difference became close to zero. In the last couple of months, however, the two indicators started to differentiate again. I will make a brief assessment of the latest credit supply and inflation figures. Consumer price index increased more than expected in August with the impact of the significant rise in food prices. Hence, annual consumer inflation reached 6.7%. The annual increase in the l index that the Central Bank (CBT) pays special attention to maintained the upwards trend in previous months and arrived at to 6.2%. This was in line with the CBT's expectations as was clearly declared in previous remarks.
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Reducing the debt
Fatih Özatay, PhD
03 September 2011
If Turkey wants to take more efficient measures against unemployment in rainy days; it has to create a larger room to maneuver in advance. Emin Dedeoğlu, a friend of mine who specialized and worked for years on public finance criticized by recent commentary titled "Room for maneuver". The commentary was about how to use the revenues to be generated via the "tax amnesty" judged by the "mixed law" No 2011. The last paragraph read, "So, here is the moral of this study: It is useful to spare some part of budget revenues in good days, for rainy days ahead."
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