Welcome, chaos
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
24 November 2011
Despite all those exciting explanations and images, I am not hopeful – in the medium term – about the prognosis for the Arab Spring. I have four fundamental reasons for this: first, there is the lack of a road map with democracy that would end poverty and solve the problem of the scarcity of economic resources, one of the most important root causes of the revolution; second, democracy-building is an inherently long-term and formidable venture; third, the emergence of a newly competitive environment would lead to the rapid replacement of fallen central authorities with ethnic, religious, sectarian and tribal authorities; and finally, there is a lack of global leaders.
[More]
The Turkish Diaspora in the top ten
Güven Sak, PhD
22 November 2011
The Turkish diaspora is of great importance for lobbying activities in support of Turkey. The Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) has been trying to organize the Turkish diaspora for some time. To this end, they have established the World Turkish Business Council (DTİK). This year, DTİK convened the seventh World Turkish Entrepreneurs Congress, which brought together entrepreneurs of Turkish nationality from all over the world. Turkish entrepreneurs resident abroad constitute the Turkish diaspora. Participants do business in a wide viriety of fields in many different countries. This is what TOBB President Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu implied when he said, “We are no longer a group of migrant workers; we are the Turkish diaspora.” I believe that having a strong and far-flung diaspora is import
[More]
Need for a new economic program
Fatih Özatay, PhD
22 November 2011
The conclusion that Turkey needs a new economic program can be reached easily from many different perspectives. Unemployment rate which escalated during the global crisis has started to fall back to the “usual” 10 percent by the early 2011. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August was announced at 9.6 percent. Though this is (slightly) below the “usual”, we will witness the rate reaching around 10 percent in a month or so. In 2012, in which a substantial fall in growth rate is expected, unemployment rate will reach higher.
[More]
Current account deficit: heads to where?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
19 November 2011
Since we will have difficulty in accessing funds for borrowing, we will invest and consume less. This will contribute to current account balance positively. Last week balance of payments statistics for September were announced. Chief among the striking developments was the worsening of the current account balance. Current account balance can fluctuate remarkably due to seasonality effects. For the purposes of economic analysis, however, adjusted movements matter. For this adjustment, I took into account the seasonal movements for three main current account balance items (namely export of goods, import of goods and net foreign exchange (FX) inflow from tourism and construction services). Second, I took into account the non-energy current account balance that excludes energy payments. Euro
[More]
The tipping point in Syria’s awakening?
Güven Sak, PhD
19 November 2011
Someone wants Syrians to see that we are at the tipping point of the Awakening. We might be at the beginning of a long and tiresome transformation process. The Arab Awakening is the event of 2011. It is obvious that there is not only one form of Arab Awakening, but many, and with events still unfolding, a pattern is emerging. Awakenings have split into two groups: Tunisia and Egypt are on one side, Yemen and Libya on the other. In the first group, political change requires Internet access, social media and mass demonstrations. In the second group, it takes a group of army defectors, a safe haven for their operation and some form of insurgency. Syria looked like it was in group one. Judging from the news of the past week, the Syrian Awakening looks like it has reached a tipping
[More]
The interest rate has increased by 50% since February
Güven Sak, PhD
18 November 2011
The Central Bank has achieved an outcome that could have been ensured simply by saying “I am increasing the policy interest rate,” and has confused everyone. Recently a friend of mine said, “See the outcomes, now. The interest on loans from my own bank has increased by 50%, from 9.5% to 14% since February. This is the case with Turkish Lira loans, whereas the rate of increase for foreign exchange loans has reached as high as 100%. Both the input cost and opportunity cost have increased, no matter what the reason. Thing have not worked out as we calculated.”
[More]
Germany is against astute ideas
Fatih Özatay, PhD
17 November 2011
One of the astute ideas, one that was opposed to by Germany, was to use the European Financial Stability Funs (EFSF) as a bank. Abundance of astute ideas as Turkey had experienced during the late twentieth century is currently experienced by Europe. There is nothing unusual; they are in trouble and they seek a way out. They are aware that as a primary step, troubled countries have to balance their economies. However, this is not enough and the chief solution is to redesign the Eurozone from scratch. They are aware that “centralization” of fiscal policy also is crucial.
[More]
Turkey’s anxieties and Syria
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
17 November 2011
As the ongoing bloodshed in Syria shatters hopes of a “soft” regime change, the country is proceeding rapidly toward the point of no return. Increasing violence and a rising death toll obstruct the country’s chances of attaining political stability after the overthrow of the current regime because violence is deepening the hostilities among social and political groups. The representatives of the Bashar al-Assad regime are committing more violence because they are afraid of reprisals.
[More]
Dubai can beat Istanbul
Güven Sak, PhD
15 November 2011
Turkey has been postponing the structural policy package since 2007. If they push harder, Turkey will become like Italy. I am discontented with the short-termism that lately has been ruling in Turkey in all realms, including the economic policy design. A recently announced index was thought-provoking regarding how Turkey should address issues. Today, I will talk about it and at the end you will agree.
[More]
ECB and CBT
Fatih Özatay, PhD
15 November 2011
The problem creating the finance requirement can be overcome with a comprehensive economic program. In addition, the politicians to implement the program have to be credible. Why does the European Central Bank (ECB) act reluctant to purchase sovereign bonds of troubled countries Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and others to be added to the list in order to prevent interest rate hakes? Why do other countries, Germany and Holland among these, oppose to this option?
[More]
