Gen Başbuğ’s arrest: Political or legal debacle?
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
19 January 2012
Turkey is not a country that can be understood easily by foreigners. The speed of developments and change leaves one reeling. But there’s no need to make much of a fuss about it because most people living in the country don’t get much of the picture either or struggle to gain an understanding. There are already people who think instead of them. In this way, they overcome understanding problems. The best example of this is the civil-military relationship, which has marvelously encapsulated the developments in Turkey.
[More]
We are not accustomed to this...
Fatih Özatay, PhD
17 January 2012
S&P has cut sovereign ratings of many Eurozone countries. Currently, ratings of three Eurozone countries are lower than that of Turkey. The new Spanish prime minister spoke in a party meeting in Malaga one day after the S&P cut the sovereign rating of the country. He said that Spanish people had recently met with concepts like “sovereign rating and risk premium cut/increased” and stressed that his government would survive the country of this odd situation.
[More]
Is Turkey wealthier than the US?
Güven Sak, PhD
15 January 2012
Gas in Turkey is more expensive than in the US due to a weaker tax administration. It was cold in New York last weekend. Extremely cold. The car thermometer said it was minus six centigrade degrees. But high level of humidity and wind made it feel colder, like in Izmir. Anyway, let me share my impressions of New York today.
[More]
Lessons of Uludere
Güven Sak, PhD
14 January 2012
We need to revisit our urbanization policies, if there are any. We have to increase connectivity, make our policies more structural and more effective. I have to start by confessing that I only understood the significance of what happened in Uludere after hearing about the Şırnak Governerate’s press release recently. My mistake entirely. Today I would like to talk about my thoughts regarding the Uludere incident as an economist and native of Turkey. The press release was about correcting the number of dead citizens of Turkey to 34, not 35, as it was previously known. It goes something like this: “The body parts of one person were mistakenly identified as the body parts of another, which led to the belief 35 had died. However, the evidence indicates that the number is 34 now.”
[More]
Is the Northern Marmara Highway a good idea?
Güven Sak, PhD
13 January 2012
That all of our dreams are about reconstructing Istanbul is a sign of illness. The cost of the Northern Marmara Highway, which involves the construction of a third Bosporus Bridge, has been estimated at US$ 5 billion. The auction was held the other day, but no bids were received. I believe this is the first evidence of what we have to expect in economic terms in 2012. I had a reason for saying, “This will be a year to maintain what you have, not to accumulate more.” My purpose is not to write another commentary themed “What will follow the Indian Summer?” I will cut it short. Today, I want to talk about the highway project directly. I tried to stress some points about urbanization in Turkey during some of my previous commentaries. Today, I want to continue by addressing this subject in the
[More]
Financing current account deficit
Fatih Özatay, PhD
12 January 2012
European banks in deficit should not choose to close the capital gap by cutting credit supply steeply for Turkey to enjoy easy access to foreign funds. There is a common anticipation that the Turkish economy will grow at a significantly lower in 2012 compared to 2011. The main reason for such an anticipation, which actually does not match with the latest data, is that fund inflows will slow down due to the European crisis. Yesterday, balance of payments data for November 2011 was announced. So, to what extent the data and the mentioned anticipation are in harmony?
[More]
Iran, Syria and beyond
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
12 January 2012
Time is ticking away for everyone regarding Iran. While the United States tries to corner Iran, it runs out the clock as it did in the past. It hopes to possess nuclear weapons as early as possible, thus dickering with the U.S. and Western actors in a different position. Within this framework, it is possible to see the narrowing gap while looking at the bigger picture. This situation chivies not only Iran and the U.S. but also everybody to have to position rapidly. Undoubtedly, Turkey is in the lead among the countries in the most difficult position, since it is an ally of the U.S. in the region and a member of NATO. The government is very well aware of what it means to say no to the U.S. when the time is ripe because of its experience with the U.S. in the Iraq War of 2003. It is
[More]
Developments about industrial production
Fatih Özatay, PhD
10 January 2012
The first conclusion these figures lead us to is that industrial production did not slow down in November 2011. Industrial production figures for November were announced. Industry had dropped steeply during late 2008 and the first half of 2009, the periods when the impact of the global crisis were the severest. After that period, industrial production picked up rapidly starting with early 2011. Between December 2009 and February 2011, industrial production expanded year-on-year by 14 .4 percent on average. Since March, annual growth rates have been lower: 8.1 percent on average for the period between March 2011 and November 2011. Industrial production growth in November was 8.4 percent, close to the March-November average. The figure below shows the annual percentage change in industrial p
[More]
Can Turkey create the Shenzhen of its own?
Güven Sak, PhD
10 January 2012
Let’s just say it: Bursa, Diyarbakir and Gaziantep are undersized because of the current administrative structure in Turkey. The other day I asked, “Why has Bursa not grown?” My argument followed like this: Dallas, the fourth largest city in the US, is one-third the size of New York, the most crowded city. In Turkey, however, the fourth largest city, Bursa, is less than one-sixth the size of Istanbul, the most populous city. The problem is not that Bursa is undersized; it is that Istanbul has grown huge. As the population has concentrated in Istanbul, other provinces have suffered from a skills deficit. This was the main lesson I drew. Then, what to do?
[More]
Are women in our cities not working because of insufficient subway systems?
09 January 2012
There is a debate we have missed out on due to the tumultuous agenda of the week: The Mayor of the Istanbul, Kadir Topbaş, said that the dolmuş (a shared transportation system where the rate is paid by the distance traveled) will gradually be retired from city traffic. On the day this remark was made, a few news channels asked the opinion of regular people on the streets but then the matter was completely forgotten. This, however, is an issue of great importance on Turkey’s path to becoming a normal country.
[More]
