What happened to education during the strife?
Güven Sak, PhD
16 March 2012
Do you realize what has happened to education as a result of the strife? Do you understand what the final draft of the education reform bill the commission has adopted implies? Do you understand what happened when the MPs started to fight tooth and nail during the commission meeting last week? Do you realize what happened to education as a result of the strife? Do you understand what the final draft of the education reform bill the commission has adopted implies? I have been trying to figure it out for some time. The Turkish press was really amazing when covering the issue. They covered how many people occupied the meeting hall, which MPs prevented which from talking, how many times MPs were kicked, and what was thrown at the Commission Chair’s head. There was, however, no coverage of the
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How to avoid head trauma
Fatih Özatay, PhD
15 March 2012
It is useful to keep in mind that fiscal policy can be a strong tool to slow down the economy, when necessary. Please think, what would happen if the Fed signaled that interest rates will be raised soon? Evidently, this would not be good for Turkey. But we know that the Fed will not be increasing interest rates anytime soon; all of the recent remarks state that attempts to raise the rates will earliest come by 2014. Of course, it is not possible to estimate the period after presidential election, which still marks a distant future. OK, what if Greece has to leave the Eurozone within a few months or Portugal also approaches toward the same path with Greece? Turkey would go through tough times, right?
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Make room for non-state actors
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
15 March 2012
Saying the Syrian regime is about to die is, of course, not an assertive prophecy. People know that it is not possible for the al-Assad regime to set itself free from the “democracy” tsunami that has occurred in the region. As the conflict gets longer and spreads, the central authority is becoming increasingly challenged. Inevitably, the collapse of the economy is accelerating and the regime is losing its legitimacy in the public eye. Chaos producing the potential of insurgencies is also taking effect in the country. As developments unfold like this, diplomatic help would become meaningless after a while and turn into only a bargaining chip. OK, one may say the regime is about to die, even if it is difficult to indicate the date clearly. However, the basic question in minds is t
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Why are the people and the deputies of the parliament not alike?
Güven Sak, PhD
13 March 2012
Why were the people in Antalya able to discuss any issue around a roundtable, looking each other in the eye, when their deputies have been brawling in Ankara? Last Sunday I was in Antalya, attending the seventh of the Citizens’ Meetings that the Constitution Platform has been organizing with the motto “Turkey Speaks.” The first meeting of the series was held in Ankara, as a pilot event. The Konya and Edirne meetings validated that the system worked. In Diyarbakir, we shifted up a gear. The Izmir meeting was just amazing. On 8 March 8, we held a meeting with the participation of women, in Ankara. The last meeting of the series was held in Antalya. There, I saw it with my own eyes: The people discussed any issue you can think of maturely, even if they were irritated. This was also the case a
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Let’s hope for the best!
Fatih Özatay, PhD
13 March 2012
Since July, capital inflows have been standing below the amount required to finance the current account deficit concerning three-month cumulative figures. Yesterday, balance of payments figures for January were announced. Today, I want to share with you some points that attracted my attention. First is that, the drop in the current account deficit, observed during November and December, ceased in January. Current account deficit maintained the level in January 2011. How you interpret this development, of course, depends on how you read this. From one angle, you can be content as the current account deficit did not increase compared to the year before.
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Industrial output on decline
Fatih Özatay, PhD
10 March 2012
In January, the downwards trend in both the output level and pace of increase in output became visible. In January, seasonally and working-day adjusted industrial output decreased month-on-month by 3.1 percent. Industrial production has been floating within a narrow interval for the last fourteen months. During the period between December 2010 and January 2012, seasonally and working-day adjusted industrial production index averaged at 126.5. Over this period the highest index value was 3.3 points above the average and the lowest was 2.1 points below the average. The index value for January, announced on last Thursday, equaled the fourteen-month average (Graph 1).
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Dentists as Green Shoots
Güven Sak, PhD
10 March 2012
Unemployment levels and jobless claims are declining, everything seems fine, but it is hard to shake the lingering feel of uncertainty. It was first mentioned on CNBC’s morning show at the beginning of March. Kelly Evans, the Wall Street reporter, was talking about the positive signs in the U.S. labor market. It is a strange time for the U.S. economy.
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The 4+4+4 formula is unfair
Güven Sak, PhD
09 March 2012
Studies suggest that designing an education system that classifies children at an age and on the basis of their success is unfair. Germany’s 4+6+2 formula for compulsory education system was unfair. This is why they have been introducing a series of amendments to the system since 2000. Similarly, the 4+4+4 formula of Turkey will be unfair. The education system of a country should not condemn the children of poor parents to being poor as well. This is what Germany’s system did. Let’s say it out loud: studies suggest that designing an education system that classifies children at an early age and on the basis of their success is unfair. Besides, it harms the equal opportunity principle. This is how we must read the education reforms Germany has been introducing since 2000. I believe that the
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Lessons of the ‘humanitarian corridor’
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
08 March 2012
As for Turkey, the apparent “humanitarian corridor” that was applied in Iraq after the First Gulf War was evidently not educational enough. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is increasingly becoming rigid on Syria. Opponents are continuing their meetings in Istanbul under the auspices of Turkey. Mr. Minister is complaining that international actors were not sufficiently solicitous about the issue, while saying he feels anxious about a turn of the screw of the situation in Syria.
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Some observations on exports
Fatih Özatay, PhD
08 March 2012
Today, I want to review the correlation between Turkey’s export performance and export partners’ growth performance. According to the newly revised IMF estimate, Europe, which grew by 1.6 percent in 2011, will shrink by 0.6 percent in 2012. The Eurozone is expected to contract by 0.5 percent. Earlier this week, growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 were announced. According to this, both the Eurozone and Europe contracted by 0.3 percent compared to quarter three. There is a close connection between the GDP growth of Turkey’s export partners and Turkey’s export performance. Of course, GDP growth is not the only determinant of the volume of exports to that particular export partner. Exchange rate and the quality of export goods are also of importance. Today, I want to review the corr
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