Syria and insurgency
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
05 April 2012
The debate over Syria still has a place on the agenda, and it is keeping Turkey busier than any other agenda item. The Syria issue has become not only a foreign policy but also a domestic policy problem. It appears as though no outcome will be achieved by diplomatic efforts in the short run. Those opposed to the Syrian government do not have the military capacity to force al-Assad out.
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Why is Bursa’s textile industry in decline?
Güven Sak, PhD
03 April 2012
The old industrial centers have started to lose the old sectors. In other words, the old industries have moved to the new industrial centers. Last weekend, I was in Bursa. The city has blossomed. I was having a look around when somebody approached me and said, “Bursa has lost the textile industry now. It has moved to Gaziantep.” Have you checked the export figures on Turkey? The picture is not exactly like what the man said. Bursa has not lost the textile industry. But a trend does exist: the old industrial centers have started to lose the old sectors. In other words, the old industries have moved to the new industrial centers. This way, industry has moved from the west to the east of Turkey. Let me tell you why. And let me explain how the new rise in fuel prices has affected this trend. I
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Growth: Now “less unsustainable”
Fatih Özatay, PhD
03 April 2012
Growth will not fall down steeply as it was once feared. 3-4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth ago seems more probable. Growth figures for 2011 were finally announced. With the 8.5 percent growth rate as of the end of 2011, the economy achieved high growth in two consecutive years. Given that the average growth rate for the 1960-2011 period was 4.5 percent, 2011 growth becomes even more remarkable.
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The annual cost of keeping women at home is $574 billion
02 April 2012
Those of you who watched TV in the 90s might have come across a show called Sliders. It’s about a group of people who travel across parallel universes, each with its own alternate version of reality. They come across worlds in which the Germans won World War II or the planet is threatened by a giant meteor. In one episode women are the dominant gender and Hillary Clinton is the president of the United States. It’s important not to get caught up in “what ifs,” but sometimes this kind of thinking can shed light on the consequences of our decisions. From a development point of view, it pays to ask what kind of country we would be living in if we had taken different steps in the last three decades.
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As pessimism is rebounding...
Fatih Özatay, PhD
31 March 2012
Between mid-January and March 21, the Central Bank of Turkey kept the short term interest rate at 7.5 percent. The rate currently reached 10 percent. Foreign trade figures for February were announced. Turkey’s exports are half in Euros and half in Dollars. These two accounts did not demonstrate a significant shift in trend in the recent months. Three-month cumulative results showed that the pace of year-on-year increase in exports in Euros had been decreasing since February 2011. This trend prevailed also in February 2012 (Graph 1). On the other hand, exports in Dollars have been increasing year-on-year by a firm 20 percent for the last six months.
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Turkey’s east is a blind alley
Güven Sak, PhD
30 March 2012
Turkey is part of the European economy. Its production capacity has become more sophisticated only because of the European market. The Customs Union agreement has been good for Turkey. It has played a major role in the global integration process of the last decade. It has helped Turkey’s exports diversify and become more sophisticated. It has upgraded Turkey from a low-tech exporter to a medium-tech exporter. The Customs Union agreement has insulated the Turkish industry against East Asian competition for a long time and contributed to the advancement of the electronic and automotive industries. So, has the agreement lost importance now? I do not think so. Let me tell you why. The agreement was validated after the reforms introduced by Kemal Derviş Turkey signed the Customs Union Agreeme
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Barzani as the “Third Party”
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
29 March 2012
Since last week, “new strategies” in the struggle with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party PKK have been being argued. To me, the main problem was not “the new strategy,” but lack of a loud and clear political target. In other saying, which political target will be realized thanks to the aforementioned strategy is beyond us. When regarded, one may say the purpose of the “new strategy” is not achieving progress on the PKK question, but at the most is a search of how to steer through “two calm summer seasons” without PKK attacks. Is that possible? To understand this, looking at the setup of the “new strategy” is required. As far as it is concerned, the main actor of the “new strategy” is Masoud Barzani. Purportedly, he will work hard and sincerely for Turkey. Thus Turkey will be at ease. Howe
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Tommy Suharto, Saddam and Cairo's misery
Fatih Özatay, PhD
29 March 2012
The authors’ answer as to where the fortune of Suharto’s son came from applies for other countries, too. Putra Suharto, known with the name Tommy, is son of former president of Indonesia. I do not know if he is still alive and fine; may God give him a long life. Tommy had a personal fortune which was estimated at $800 million by the mid 1980s and a fabulous playboy life, according to the book Economic Gangsters by R. Fisman and E. Miguel.
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Corruption economics
Fatih Özatay, PhD
27 March 2012
The productivity of an organization is related to the level to which its employees have internalized its objectives. I am in Cairo to attend an academic conference. The theme of the three-day conference is “corruption and economic development.” Studies suggest that there is a close relationship between corruption and development. I think there is no need for much evidence to prove the correlation. The point will come clear when you think about roads which collapse soon after they were constructed or premises of public institutions which demolish during earthquakes. As international comparisons reveal, corruption negatively affects the international competitiveness of a country, as well.
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How does Syria affect Gaziantep?
Güven Sak, PhD
27 March 2012
The wave of transformation that recently has overcome us is not good for Turkey. It is not good for Gaziantep, either. I was in Gaziantep when I first saw a leaflet on the investment climate in Syria. At that time, Syria had recently opened a consulate in the city. The consulate was distributing leaflets that said, “Invest in Syria.” By the way, the leaflets were written in Turkish, obviously. Back then, Syria was a blessing for Gaziantep. But how about today? Is it bad for Gaziantep that it is a neighbor of Syria? At first glance, it might look as if it is. In reality, however, it is not exactly. We need to look under the hood to answer this question. Yes, the Syrian crisis will affect Turkey differently in each region. The industrial centers which predominantly export to the Middle Easte
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