The pessimistic scenario might become the “baseline scenario.” And the recent shock that shook Turkey intensifies this possibility. I wrote the...
If the current economic structure of Turkey were similar to that before the 2001 crisis, the economy would have shaken so badly. The probe initiated...
The outlook of unemployment in Turkey is same as that of inflation. The mean is stiff, and we cannot overcome it permanently. Labor force statistics...
Non-gold exports increased by 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, about two times of that in 2012. Here is the summary of my baseline...
3.5 percent GDP growth would be a reasonable forecast. A sharper drop in net capital inflows or a significant rise in interest rate would limit GDP...
The official growth forecast for 2013 at 3.6 percent probably will be realized readily. In fact, GDP growth might be even higher below 4 percent....
If you are not implementing an economic policy measure that will radically alter the inflationary outlook, changing inflation depends on luck. A...
Even the FED does not initiate tapering on 17-18 December, the statements after the meeting might alter expectations on the timing and the magnitude...
These steps will further reduce GDP growth in 2014. From this perspective, the decisions were untimely. But when you neglect this significant delay,...
Taking into account the current vulnerabilities facing the Turkish economy, two external determinants come to the fore: the US and Europe. It is...